Australian A League · resolved market
Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a264ed7fda985447e741fc263f21a01247df21dc9445ed4d57ac177fe706a0b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,511
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,349
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,511 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Over | 64c | 3,104$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,104.47 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 48c | 2,388$1,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,152.32 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 45c | 1,449$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.71 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 38c | 1,413$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.53 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 27c | 1,224$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.2 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10cb…8f74backed Over | 61c | 1,131$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2dc…b624backed Over | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Under | 4c | 982.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +198.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 50c | 924.84$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.98 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 48c | 802.57$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.05 | 151 | 40.4%61 W · 90 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbf…8c7bbacked Over | 42c | 589.58$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 24c | 561.67$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.87 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 62c | 510.31$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.81 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 49c | 470.45$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.5 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 62c | 467.99$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.25 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +9.2wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 9c | 452.81$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.75 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed Under | 3c | 450$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Over | 45c | 450$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8af…44dcbacked Over | 38c | 440$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 58c | 416$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.72 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Over | 28c | 400$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Under | 37c | 370.96$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.26 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c2…190dbacked Over | 51c | 349.67$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.34 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…c5afbacked Under | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8b…88cbbacked Over | 38c | 284.89$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 24c | 233.04$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.52 | 149 | 51%76 W · 73 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 64c | 229.57$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.53 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa5…e01bbacked Over | 55c | 224.57$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.26 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 47c | 210.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.84 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1f…eb43backed Over | 52c | 201.92$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.92 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96b4…c2f1backed Over | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +4.1wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +117.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xacb4…7595backed Under | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 65c | 198.73$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.25 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +8.1wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Under | 45c | 150$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 67c | 140.2$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.27 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x11d8…5be4backed Under | 51c | 127.61$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbb…48f2backed Over | 30c | 116.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe08f…ea46backed Under | 61c | 111.21$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 67c | 101.82$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Over | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9c…c6debacked Under | 50c | 91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc219…0687backed Under | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…31f3backed Over | 31c | 87.1$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.1 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…572dbacked Over | 60c | 83.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.45 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7333…ca16backed Under | 18c | 81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51cc…654ebacked Under | 49c | 65.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c74…0d16backed Under | 20c | 64.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1d…d05ebacked Over | 28c | 56.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.66 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3590…68f1backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 51c | 47.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 57c | 46.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…86dbbacked Under | 57c | 46.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x659f…04e4backed Under | 57c | 46.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 57c | 46.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa42c…b22ebacked Under | 57c | 46.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Under | 57c | 46.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9da…f7d9backed Over | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbf…8d1ebacked Over | 61c | 39.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfd…aadebacked Under | 56c | 39.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f354backed Under | 38c | 39.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 74c | 34.36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 68 | 23.5%16 W · 52 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb5…0da8backed Under | 48c | 33.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4556…2b3cbacked Over | 50c | 30.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…5922backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0156…2ddcbacked Over | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.26per pick | 35cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9293…b5fdbacked Over | 55c | 27.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed0…b5b8backed Under | 55c | 21.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 79c | 20.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa738…ddedbacked Over | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Adelaide United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Adelaide United FC (-1.5)Newcastle United Jets FC won
- Spread: Adelaide United FC (-2.5)Newcastle United Jets FC won
- Spread: Newcastle United Jets FC (-1.5)Adelaide United FC won
- Spread: Newcastle United Jets FC (-2.5)Adelaide United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.