Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Michigan Wolverines vs. TCU Horned Frogs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31ebb01a91f311da3751e75b0a237c17a5609bd476a4cadf1648938f03535b14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Michigan Wolverinesof Michigan Wolverines, TCU Horned Frogs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,181
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,932
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,181 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Michigan Wolverines | 77c | 4,317$3,324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$992.91 | 226 | 45.6%103 W · 123 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed TCU Horned Frogs | 26c | 3,816$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002.4 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked TCU Horned Frogs | 18c | 2,128$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.44 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Michigan Wolverines | 76c | 1,031$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.44 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed TCU Horned Frogs | 23c | 792$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.14 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked TCU Horned Frogs | 23c | 742.74$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.36 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed TCU Horned Frogs | 15c | 575.34$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.51 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Michigan Wolverines | 76c | 517.85$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.68 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Michigan Wolverines | 77c | 487$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.01 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2615…6c59backed TCU Horned Frogs | 2c | 402$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed02…8d83backed Michigan Wolverines | 77c | 395$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b6…b02ebacked TCU Horned Frogs | 22c | 318.13$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -5.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -50%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x74bc…98c9backed Michigan Wolverines | 71c | 236.02$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67d3…0af2backed TCU Horned Frogs | 32c | 186$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Michigan Wolverines | 62c | 164.58$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.22 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05a6…6044backed Michigan Wolverines | 77c | 141$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf65…45d7backed TCU Horned Frogs | 12c | 133.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed TCU Horned Frogs | 31c | 131.2$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.51 | 556 | 57.4%319 W · 237 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…3fccbacked Michigan Wolverines | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa65f…f7f7backed Michigan Wolverines | 71c | 80.93$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6524…d2d8backed Michigan Wolverines | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Michigan Wolverines | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Michigan Wolverines | 80c | 27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 68cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x375e…6c94backed Michigan Wolverines | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a7…8150backed Michigan Wolverines | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb3…1356backed Michigan Wolverines | 62c | 16.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.