Ligue 1 · resolved market
RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb13c3a090b2a0bbf3659b6aeebd0b9be8bf840ab7a3cf2f9378587776b499b60
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,714
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,748
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,714 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb85…152fbacked Over | 55c | 9,130$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,130.13 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 44c | 7,131$3,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,131.24 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 47c | 1,343$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.51 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 46c | 1,206$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.83 | 525 | 50.1%263 W · 262 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 36c | 757.79$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.02 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 44c | 683.02$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.1 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 47c | 640.93$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.38 | 331 | 45%149 W · 182 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Over | 46c | 586.96$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.96 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 46c | 543$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.78 | 211 | 43.1%91 W · 120 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa5…e01bbacked Over | 51c | 490.59$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.59 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9544…790dbacked Under | 47c | 443$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.21 | 109 | 42.2%46 W · 63 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x106b…4e8bbacked Over | 68c | 439.85$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.85 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 63c | 326.95$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.95 | 86 | 54.7%47 W · 39 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 47c | 314.99$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.35 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 54c | 301.83$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.04 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Under | 46c | 293.9$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.03 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Under | 48c | 262.27$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.71 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 46c | 261$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.94 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa203…11bcbacked Under | 37c | 260$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.2 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x274b…d408backed Over | 44c | 218.3$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.3 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Over | 64c | 211$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.96 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 28c | 198.33$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.23 | 188 | 47.9%90 W · 98 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Over | 60c | 190.37$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.37 | 117 | 25.6%30 W · 87 L | -9.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Under | 45c | 186.32$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.84 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 45c | 184$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.8 | 277 | 48.7%135 W · 142 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Over | 55c | 182.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.18 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…2909backed Over | 54c | 170$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 46c | 150.02$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.01 | 263 | 54%142 W · 121 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab90…5793backed Over | 77c | 147$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 53c | 129.3$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.03 | 464 | 50.4%234 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24a3…7c66backed Over | 64c | 125$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Under | 47c | 103.54$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d63…aa21backed Under | 47c | 102.13$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec45…6c6dbacked Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 223 | 40.8%91 W · 132 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Over | 57c | 94.27$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.21 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 36c | 75.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 45c | 74.61$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 164 | 48.8%80 W · 84 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Over | 55c | 73.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.01 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c2…190dbacked Under | 42c | 70$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 46c | 69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Over | 58c | 67.59$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 46c | 65.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3548…0ebbbacked Over | 54c | 62.96$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 45c | 62.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Over | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Over | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 240 | 51.7%124 W · 116 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Over | 54c | 55.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.17 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1edb…a60bbacked Under | 47c | 52.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad3…d0d2backed Under | 44c | 52.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 45c | 50.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 351 | 57%200 W · 151 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | -6.4wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 45c | 46.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 233 | 42.5%99 W · 134 L | -11.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Over | 66c | 45.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x923a…e723backed Over | 44c | 45.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49bc…0413backed Over | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d50…d283backed Under | 46c | 43.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Over | 54c | 43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf504…132ebacked Under | 42c | 38.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 92 | 62%57 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f46…1db8backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0f…e047backed Over | 62c | 29.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +128.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33b3…e861backed Over | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3db…97a6backed Over | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56d2…d7a0backed Under | 47c | 27.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb988…f50fbacked Under | 47c | 26.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +4.7wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8684…bfaabacked Under | 46c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…30a8backed Under | 46c | 21.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18ed…590abacked Under | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Over | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdae…6ad2backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -5.2wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 78 | 69.2%54 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 2.5this page
- RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Toulouse FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: RC Strasbourg Alsace (-1.5)Toulouse FC won
- Spread: Toulouse FC (-1.5)RC Strasbourg Alsace won
- Spread: Toulouse FC (-2.5)RC Strasbourg Alsace won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.