Ligue 1 · resolved market
Toulouse FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf928254c404480c0e470976fcbaa385da3bafc8cf6dedbdd2ad88e62f68fddc9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,826
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,927
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,826 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x073f…ed92backed Over | 57c | 5,070$2,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,180.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Under | 40c | 3,034$1,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,209.55 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 43c | 2,035$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875 | 166 | 44.6%74 W · 92 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 43c | 1,943$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835.31 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69e3…761fbacked Over | 64c | 1,684$1,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 43c | 1,480$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.2 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 45c | 1,102$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.19 | 227 | 45.8%104 W · 123 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x800a…0b4dbacked Over | 53c | 979.13$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.19 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 53c | 693.12$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.06 | 331 | 45%149 W · 182 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 47c | 637.62$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.46 | 260 | 46.2%120 W · 140 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 43c | 559.93$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.77 | 263 | 54%142 W · 121 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a6…6ea4backed Over | 52c | 480.77$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.77 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 61c | 473.42$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.24 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 43c | 450$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.5 | 260 | 41.9%109 W · 151 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 44c | 402.63$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.56 | 525 | 50.1%263 W · 262 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Over | 52c | 384.5$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.56 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 42c | 346.55$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.55 | 233 | 42.5%99 W · 134 L | -11.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Over | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.83 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63c5…1ecbbacked Over | 52c | 295$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.6 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Over | 36c | 246$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.11 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Under | 6c | 208.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | +139.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…38ccbacked Over | 56c | 204.88$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.14 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 37c | 199.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.99 | 223 | 40.8%91 W · 132 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…f183backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 52c | 192$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.16 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Over | 55c | 176.23$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.35 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Over | 50c | 160$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8293…aaeebacked Over | 56c | 159.3$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 52c | 150$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.45 | 240 | 51.7%124 W · 116 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 45c | 129.34$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.2 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Under | 63c | 122.94$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 47c | 103.08$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 380 | 56.6%215 W · 165 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…99b7backed Over | 56c | 101.79$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.79 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…3933backed Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 43c | 96.11$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.33 | 464 | 50.4%234 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Under | 44c | 95.78$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.14 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 43c | 94.23$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.52 | 164 | 48.8%80 W · 84 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 43c | 94$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 57c | 89.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.34 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcd…1a94backed Over | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 45c | 71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 57c | 54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03f5…3047backed Over | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe626…92b5backed Over | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 59c | 50.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 266 | 60.5%161 W · 105 L | +25.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 51c | 50.2$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.37 | 228 | 54.4%124 W · 104 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Over | 56c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5192…df62backed Under | 63c | 36.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 58c | 34.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Under | 48c | 32.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 57c | 31.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2912…6817backed Over | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Under | 43c | 24.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Over | 60c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -7.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -21%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 56c | 20.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -6.6wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0d91…df18backed Over | 53c | 20.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 64c | 17.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | +9.2wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toulouse FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: Olympique Lyonnais (-1.5)Toulouse FC won
- Spread: Olympique Lyonnais (-2.5)Toulouse FC won
- Spread: Toulouse FC (-1.5)Olympique Lyonnais won
- Toulouse FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Toulouse FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 1.5Over won
- Toulouse FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 3.5Under won
- Toulouse FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.