Ligue 1 · resolved market
Spread: Olympique Lyonnais (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4e11df8de921da3c267bc31597cbc5eab3a5a3f4b4921ed473b648ecabe34d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toulouse FCof Olympique Lyonnais, Toulouse FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,065
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,474
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,065 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Toulouse FC | 70c | 839.99$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 263 | 54%142 W · 121 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Olympique Lyonnais | 30c | 606.66$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 166 | 44.6%74 W · 92 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…9d11backed Olympique Lyonnais | 13c | 600$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a70…0519backed Olympique Lyonnais | 30c | 466.67$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Olympique Lyonnais | 16c | 449.6$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 227 | 45.8%104 W · 123 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Olympique Lyonnais | 21c | 400$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Olympique Lyonnais | 30c | 296.61$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.85 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Olympique Lyonnais | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Olympique Lyonnais | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked Olympique Lyonnais | 30c | 195.43$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.63 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Toulouse FC | 70c | 112.06$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 123 | 67.5%83 W · 40 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…3933backed Olympique Lyonnais | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe906…aa69backed Olympique Lyonnais | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Toulouse FC | 70c | 64.5$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 78 | 61.5%48 W · 30 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Toulouse FC | 71c | 49.26$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Olympique Lyonnais | 29c | 47.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 126 | 47.6%60 W · 66 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Toulouse FC | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Toulouse FC | 70c | 29.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Toulouse FC | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Olympique Lyonnais (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Olympique Lyonnais (-2.5)Toulouse FC won
- Spread: Toulouse FC (-1.5)Olympique Lyonnais won
- Toulouse FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Toulouse FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 1.5Over won
- Toulouse FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 2.5Over won
- Toulouse FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 3.5Under won
- Toulouse FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.