Ligue 1 · resolved market
Toulouse FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ba61f1efd35178aadf04407ddca414412532d3a36967c8013f8ebc11cd39504
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,722
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,831
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,722 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Under | 50c | 12,497$6,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,263.94 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Over | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 51c | 2,889$1,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,478.77 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 33c | 1,694$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.93 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 35c | 1,429$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -10.4wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x69e3…761fbacked Over | 50c | 1,390$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x800a…0b4dbacked Over | 35c | 1,093$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 63c | 1,008$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.84 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 50c | 990$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495 | 124 | 48.4%60 W · 64 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Over | 48c | 930$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.4 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 50c | 928.41$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.21 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 65c | 904.06$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.18 | 525 | 50.1%263 W · 262 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa374…9709backed Under | 47c | 800$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 64c | 695.88$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.04 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 62c | 625.7$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.15 | 331 | 45%149 W · 182 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 34c | 611.27$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.83 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc283…b876backed Over | 34c | 588.24$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 56c | 582.15$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.12 | 227 | 45.8%104 W · 123 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 17c | 447$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.04 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4e…12aebacked Over | 23c | 406$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.62 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 65c | 400$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 304 | 48%146 W · 158 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Over | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 66c | 281$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.6 | 263 | 54%142 W · 121 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 54c | 240.74$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x505a…bb61backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7018…290abacked Under | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 50c | 185.5$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.88 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 66c | 180.76$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.15 | 164 | 48.8%80 W · 84 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a6…6ea4backed Over | 56c | 179.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…38ccbacked Over | 33c | 150.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 66c | 148.08$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.35 | 166 | 44.6%74 W · 92 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 55c | 120$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 34c | 117.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 74 | 29.7%22 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 23c | 110$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 228 | 54.4%124 W · 104 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 68c | 104.16$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 380 | 56.6%215 W · 165 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2af…3880backed Over | 50c | 102.92$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.35 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 29c | 102.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…3933backed Over | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd53c…5194backed Over | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 79c | 87.34$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 240 | 52.9%127 W · 113 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Under | 67c | 79$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 20c | 62.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 50c | 56.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Over | 25c | 49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under | 66c | 46.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Under | 65c | 39.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Under | 66c | 31.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Under | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Under | 65c | 28.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 102 | 48%49 W · 53 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf9…1646backed Over | 57c | 24.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc83f…23e4backed Under | 68c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 71c | 22.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 123 | 67.5%83 W · 40 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toulouse FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: Olympique Lyonnais (-1.5)Toulouse FC won
- Spread: Olympique Lyonnais (-2.5)Toulouse FC won
- Spread: Toulouse FC (-1.5)Olympique Lyonnais won
- Toulouse FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Toulouse FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 1.5Over won
- Toulouse FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 2.5Over won
- Toulouse FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.