Serie A · resolved market
Bologna FC 1909 vs. US Lecce: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25cc1805dd9e284afdd5462d51c64f4e0d3e940895e25cb81afe4cc63be1dc16
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,965
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,236
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,965 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x31c1…7047backed Over | 47c | 10,295$4,841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,841.07 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 60c | 9,492$5,676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,816.22 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 68c | 6,158$4,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,976.4 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f09…9312backed Over | 43c | 3,977$1,727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,726.51 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd0…93acbacked Over | 42c | 2,312$971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$971.06 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 55c | 1,851$1,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$833.02 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7e…c230backed Over | 45c | 1,322$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.71 | 113 | 48.7%55 W · 58 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed Under | 58c | 978.78$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.9 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 930.94$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.04 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20dd…f6acbacked Under | 78c | 888.44$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 46c | 883.46$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.39 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc72d…fc21backed Over | 43c | 794.37$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.58 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under | 57c | 699.98$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.99 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 50c | 678.83$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.04 | 107 | 59.8%64 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 31c | 618.45$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.72 | 138 | 26.1%36 W · 102 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb184…b6c6backed Over | 32c | 609.55$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.71 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Over | 42c | 523.47$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.86 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Over | 42c | 500.98$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.41 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…2935backed Under | 44c | 439.27$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.99 | 49 | 73.5%36 W · 13 L | +9.4wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Over | 57c | 416.96$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.67 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 8c | 368.71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 491 | 37.5%184 W · 307 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Over | 43c | 359.37$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.53 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked Under | 58c | 333.61$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.59 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Over | 29c | 300$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 136 | 36.8%50 W · 86 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1e…f62bbacked Over | 45c | 268.61$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b84…2f73backed Under | 71c | 262.95$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.26 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9859…1650backed Over | 36c | 251.78$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.64 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 59c | 242.73$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.86 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5465…ba43backed Over | 45c | 214.89$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.7 | 43 | 74.4%32 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…d4debacked Over | 45c | 214.89$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.7 | 216 | 50.5%109 W · 107 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 42c | 207.99$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.75 | 652 | 54.1%353 W · 299 L | +19.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 76c | 200.71$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.86 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 61c | 192.18$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.01 | 411 | 44.3%182 W · 229 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 57c | 157.89$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.89 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88ff…5102backed Over | 34c | 152.53$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.86 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefa8…924ebacked Over | 15c | 129.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 58c | 115.96$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 131 | 46.6%61 W · 70 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 46c | 102.93$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.35 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…fc48backed Over | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…4c57backed Over | 20c | 97.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 33 | 6.1%2 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 19cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 44c | 96.64$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.47 | 267 | 47.2%126 W · 141 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d12…cc43backed Over | 34c | 84.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -56%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8277…7d31backed Over | 43c | 83.29$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.19 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Over | 29c | 76.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Under | 65c | 76.14$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -6.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…c87bbacked Under | 56c | 72.69$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.98 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe831…e4dabacked Over | 44c | 65.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 102 | 42.2%43 W · 59 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad8…5004backed Over | 45c | 65.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb6…9ce6backed Under | 73c | 63.16$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…a236backed Over | 58c | 61.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 55c | 55.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.88 | 199 | 52.8%105 W · 94 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 56c | 53.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…4a12backed Over | 44c | 48.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 112 | 55.4%62 W · 50 L | +15.5wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Under | 78c | 44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2e…caf6backed Over | 41c | 43.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd85a…1d03backed Under | 57c | 42.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bb…2753backed Under | 58c | 42.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66fc…2720backed Under | 57c | 37.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6769…f8b9backed Under | 56c | 34.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabd5…e713backed Under | 79c | 33.53$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 43c | 32.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 181 | 25.4%46 W · 135 L | -18.7wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc0eb…6d57backed Under | 46c | 31.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 42c | 30.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 511 | 39.1%200 W · 311 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b62…1924backed Over | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 42c | 28.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 419 | 54.7%229 W · 190 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Over | 42c | 26.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…a2dabacked Under | 57c | 25.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 88 | 58%51 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e35…ee1abacked Under | 78c | 25.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 74cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…0febbacked Over | 41c | 24.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9409…5b36backed Under | 59c | 23.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Over | 43c | 23.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 136 | 53.7%73 W · 63 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Over | 43c | 23.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c2…080bbacked Over | 43c | 23.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Over | 43c | 23.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 103 | 58.3%60 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8943…6c65backed Under | 56c | 20.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6137…7203backed Under | 58c | 17.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. US Lecce: O/U 2.5this page
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. US Lecce: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. US Lecce: O/U 1.5Over won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. US Lecce: O/U 3.5Under won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. US Lecce: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-1.5)Bologna FC 1909 won
- Spread: US Lecce (-1.5)Bologna FC 1909 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.