Serie A · resolved market
Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9967ae0a291d468d155b7524db610aa245f197f1b8af87fc69d3530522e123d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bologna FC 1909of Bologna FC 1909, US Lecce
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,297
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,767
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,297 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Bologna FC 1909 | 25c | 3,505$886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,618.85 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed US Lecce | 68c | 3,255$2,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,205.94 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ff…79dcbacked Bologna FC 1909 | 45c | 1,816$817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$998.7 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Bologna FC 1909 | 25c | 1,331$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$997.88 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…1b97backed Bologna FC 1909 | 28c | 516.55$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.05 | 127 | 31.5%40 W · 87 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed US Lecce | 74c | 492.83$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.81 | 199 | 52.8%105 W · 94 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Bologna FC 1909 | 29c | 488.98$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.12 | 491 | 37.5%184 W · 307 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Bologna FC 1909 | 24c | 478.19$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.13 | 498 | 50.6%252 W · 246 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Bologna FC 1909 | 28c | 458.46$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.66 | 411 | 44.3%182 W · 229 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed US Lecce | 72c | 425.11$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.08 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed US Lecce | 74c | 398.18$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.82 | 113 | 46.9%53 W · 60 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bab…50aabacked US Lecce | 75c | 338.42$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.33 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed US Lecce | 75c | 283.31$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.79 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked US Lecce | 74c | 278.38$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.82 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…f655backed Bologna FC 1909 | 42c | 265.07$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.26 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked US Lecce | 75c | 257.75$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.32 | 141 | 59.6%84 W · 57 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed US Lecce | 75c | 239.24$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.91 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…764ebacked Bologna FC 1909 | 38c | 238.88$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.1 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed US Lecce | 75c | 171.5$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.93 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -11.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed US Lecce | 74c | 164.26$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.93 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed US Lecce | 75c | 131.32$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.49 | 173 | 54.3%94 W · 79 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fc…e772backed US Lecce | 74c | 93.12$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.91 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9531…18ffbacked Bologna FC 1909 | 38c | 91.21$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.55 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed US Lecce | 76c | 74.67$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Bologna FC 1909 | 30c | 59.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.71 | 162 | 19.1%31 W · 131 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Bologna FC 1909 | 75c | 56.67$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 467 | 42.8%200 W · 267 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Bologna FC 1909 | 26c | 52.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.91 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Bologna FC 1909 | 33c | 51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.17 | 319 | 58.3%186 W · 133 L | +26.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked US Lecce | 76c | 44.54$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…37dfbacked Bologna FC 1909 | 27c | 42.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked US Lecce | 75c | 38.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6687…b9ddbacked US Lecce | 75c | 37.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked US Lecce | 75c | 37.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a94…769cbacked US Lecce | 73c | 33.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033b…5e3fbacked US Lecce | 75c | 32.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed US Lecce | 73c | 32.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 260 | 40%104 W · 156 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed US Lecce | 73c | 29.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked US Lecce | 76c | 25.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 136 | 53.7%73 W · 63 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…90fdbacked US Lecce | 76c | 25.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15bb…2033backed US Lecce | 74c | 18.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked US Lecce | 75c | 17.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-1.5)this page
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. US Lecce: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. US Lecce: O/U 1.5Over won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. US Lecce: O/U 2.5Under won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. US Lecce: O/U 3.5Under won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. US Lecce: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: US Lecce (-1.5)Bologna FC 1909 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.