Serie A · resolved market
Bologna FC 1909 vs. US Lecce: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d80fe78a9ead11a8e9bd6c293795d2f5f719bcf0aa10ef8504214df102117f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,017
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,291
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,017 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 10c | 2,522$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.15 | 411 | 44.3%182 W · 229 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 4c | 459.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 28c | 247.15$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.2 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 196 | 52%102 W · 94 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 23c | 103.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x415d…a37cbacked Under | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd85a…1d03backed Under | 77c | 96.06$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x811c…fd36backed Under | 77c | 95.37$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5887…994ebacked Over | 24c | 87.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8761…c1ebbacked Under | 77c | 64.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 72c | 62.53$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 199 | 52.8%105 W · 94 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee09…1199backed Under | 77c | 44.83$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 65 | 69.2%45 W · 20 L | +6.5wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 72c | 41.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 72c | 41.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -11.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed Under | 72c | 34.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 72c | 20.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 113 | 46.9%53 W · 60 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 72c | 20.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Under | 72c | 20.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 72c | 20.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd507…f719backed Under | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 68cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. US Lecce: O/U 3.5this page
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. US Lecce: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. US Lecce: O/U 1.5Over won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. US Lecce: O/U 2.5Under won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. US Lecce: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-1.5)Bologna FC 1909 won
- Spread: US Lecce (-1.5)Bologna FC 1909 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.