IPO · resolved market
Will EagleRock's market cap be between $2.5B and $3.0B at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17b7ec0da8e7eed1a4dfff6fa678cfbd28cd6f59aa3dc8d0e75d80ff295298ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,473
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,173
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,473 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5011…220ebacked Yes | 45c | 1,123$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.41 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x34b0…d620backed Yes | 59c | 865.5$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.72 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 46c | 861.24$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.39 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 41c | 837.56$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.97 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 47c | 245$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.15 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 46c | 197.71$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.75 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -5.5wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 48c | 195.83$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.54 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 44c | 194.66$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 31cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0296…ad01backed Yes | 72c | 120$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 52c | 114.69$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.09 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 21c | 110$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 15c | 107$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 22cpaid | -85%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 20c | 94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc93b…9e73backed No | 65c | 77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 46c | 75.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.57 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 52c | 67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 68c | 59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38b6…ab56backed Yes | 33c | 58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed Yes | 48c | 52.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.57 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b7…a755backed No | 47c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5522…7695backed Yes | 33c | 42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +140.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8709…930dbacked No | 62c | 41.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c2…bb4fbacked No | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +34%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6977…936fbacked No | 57c | 39.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b69…42cfbacked No | 46c | 39.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaabf…afd2backed No | 46c | 34.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…e602backed No | 68c | 31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 58cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf118…03ecbacked No | 68c | 27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 62c | 26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 139 | 32.4%45 W · 94 L | -16.7wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xca24…686bbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcefe…895dbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5705…4652backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c1…90c7backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0457…9828backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc0…6bb7backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49e2…0124backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f27…7a85backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9236…e0cbbacked No | 67c | 18.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 37cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will EagleRock's market cap be between $2.5B and $3.0B at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will EagleRock's market cap be at least $3.5B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will EagleRock's market cap be between $2.0B and $2.5B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will EagleRock's market cap be between $3.0B and $3.5B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will EagleRock's market cap be less than $2.0B at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.