Tennis · resolved market

Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Halys (+2.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf70fdb16e8fca05da6abe1cceb6d6ded59da889175d85c7480e4526719183fb0

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Halysof Zverev, Halys
Resolved: May 29, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $48,499
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $53,667

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,499 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tennis
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x84cb…28adbacked Zverev	61c	21,215$12,997 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12,996.77	104	44.2%46 W · 58 L	-7.4wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Halys	37c	11,820$4,385 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,434.77	4,070	39.7%1,617 W · 2,453 L	+92.7wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd40d…a926backed Halys	41c	10,000$4,100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,899.98	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	+1.5wins	+0.07per pick	26cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb946…2671backed Zverev	58c	3,621$2,100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,100.09	578	42.4%245 W · 333 L	+9.5wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed Zverev	59c	2,119$1,250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,250	595	53.8%320 W · 275 L	-8.5wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed Halys	42c	1,547$650 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$897.13	154	47.4%73 W · 81 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e15…7531backed Zverev	58c	1,300$754 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$753.97	38	68.4%26 W · 12 L	+6.9wins	+0.18per pick	50cpaid	+40.6%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0xdeff…78f8backed Zverev	59c	1,215$718 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$717.56	435	47.4%206 W · 229 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	+53.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb71…4371backed Zverev	70c	1,051$733 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$732.86	108	48.1%52 W · 56 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc60b…d9f7backed Zverev	60c	1,000$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	351	39.6%139 W · 212 L	-15.9wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c43…fb9bbacked Halys	40c	955.75$382 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$573.45	67	40.3%27 W · 40 L	-2.4wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf38…848bbacked Halys	39c	887.99$346 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$541.67	41	56.1%23 W · 18 L	+4.4wins	+0.11per pick	45cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0a7e…b805backed Halys	37c	799.99$296 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$503.99	31	61.3%19 W · 12 L	+3.9wins	+0.13per pick	49cpaid	+40.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Halys	35c	799.56$280 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$519.64	9,231	44.3%4,088 W · 5,143 L	-241.2wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-12%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a7…e5d4backed Halys	42c	786.92$331 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$455.63	209	42.6%89 W · 120 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x36b4…d723backed Halys	31c	699.99$217 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$482.99	191	46.6%89 W · 102 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc5a…07b6backed Halys	43c	652.93$280 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$372.52	252	40.5%102 W · 150 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Zverev	55c	577.05$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320	1,444	48.8%705 W · 739 L	-1.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	0%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xefd1…c520backed Zverev	60c	501.11$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	299	48.5%145 W · 154 L	-5.4wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4f9…9419backed Zverev	59c	500$295 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$295	308	27.6%85 W · 223 L	-4.2wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb55d…6984backed Halys	42c	476.19$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$276.19	27	33.3%9 W · 18 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2c2c…90d4backed Zverev	69c	460$317 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$317.4	234	54.7%128 W · 106 L	+10.8wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x54d1…13f4backed Halys	37c	424$156 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$268.12	737	48%354 W · 383 L	-1.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Zverev	64c	409.42$262 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$262.03	2,144	54.2%1,162 W · 982 L	-1.1wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Zverev	63c	397.18$251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$251.37	1,672	50.1%837 W · 835 L	+30.9wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c6e…542dbacked Zverev	59c	338.98$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	197	56.3%111 W · 86 L	-10.6wins	-0.05per pick	62cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x272d…bc2fbacked Zverev	63c	323.8$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203.99	365	57.5%210 W · 155 L	+7.3wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc93…b91dbacked Zverev	61c	319.67$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195	71	59.2%42 W · 29 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8db…ccfbbacked Zverev	59c	311.86$184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$184	186	55.9%104 W · 82 L	-3.8wins	-0.02per pick	58cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x961e…6c1cbacked Zverev	68c	307.02$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$208.77	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+61.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee5a…9f70backed Halys	38c	300$113 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$187.5	356	41.3%147 W · 209 L	+9.9wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Halys	39c	274.41$107 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$167.66	7,710	47.8%3,685 W · 4,025 L	+42.0wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Zverev	67c	265.85$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.17	2,399	50.6%1,215 W · 1,184 L	+76.0wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf703…541abacked Halys	39c	259.02$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$159.02	95	43.2%41 W · 54 L	+4.8wins	+0.05per pick	38cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa742…68c5backed Zverev	60c	250$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	61	65.6%40 W · 21 L	+4.4wins	+0.07per pick	58cpaid	+39.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf671…3dd7backed Halys	40c	250$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$150	84	59.5%50 W · 34 L	+5.5wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+22.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xac15…75a4backed Halys	42c	250$105 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$145	65	56.9%37 W · 28 L	+3.7wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Halys	42c	248.81$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$144.31	125	52.8%66 W · 59 L	-5.4wins	-0.04per pick	57cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca85…7453backed Zverev	61c	245.9$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	154	40.9%63 W · 91 L	-4.3wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed Halys	42c	226.19$95 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$131.19	284	43%122 W · 162 L	-4.2wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x64ae…ead9backed Zverev	61c	221.31$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135	606	41.6%252 W · 354 L	-5.5wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Halys	40c	204.47$82 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$122.68	2,212	42.9%948 W · 1,264 L	+34.4wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Zverev	58c	200$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116	68	52.9%36 W · 32 L	+2.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ddd…1ad3backed Zverev	60c	200$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119	31	35.5%11 W · 20 L	-3.0wins	-0.10per pick	45cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6195…388abacked Halys	34c	196$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$129.36	188	50%94 W · 94 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c3a…a56bbacked Zverev	60c	192.6$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.56	171	49.1%84 W · 87 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1646…2f81backed Zverev	69c	169.38$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.57	317	49.5%157 W · 160 L	-8.5wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Halys	39c	162$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98.4	478	54.8%262 W · 216 L	+25.6wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+23.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x27fa…d8c4backed Halys	36c	161.11$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$103.11	139	28.1%39 W · 100 L	+5.0wins	+0.04per pick	24cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Zverev	63c	139.83$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.16	4,765	47%2,238 W · 2,527 L	-82.2wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd3a…91fdbacked Zverev	66c	139.48$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.06	1,018	46.8%476 W · 542 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc17c…dad7backed Halys	40c	125$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75	44	40.9%18 W · 26 L	+2.0wins	+0.05per pick	36cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x11c9…1184backed Halys	41c	118.07$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.66	81	18.5%15 W · 66 L	-11.4wins	-0.14per pick	33cpaid	-39%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xa324…eae0backed Zverev	61c	115.62$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.53	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	-5.5wins	-0.25per pick	61cpaid	-45.8%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0x56ae…9badbacked Halys	31c	112.5$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77.5	486	37.7%183 W · 303 L	-12.0wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5f2…bb1dbacked Halys	28c	112.5$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80.5	164	46.3%76 W · 88 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed Zverev	58c	100$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	36	58.3%21 W · 15 L	+3.4wins	+0.09per pick	49cpaid	+48.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0a3e…fde0backed Halys	40c	100$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.9wins	+0.19per pick	21cpaid	+61.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a26…937ebacked Zverev	71c	98$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	459	57.5%264 W · 195 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbced…5808backed Zverev	35c	95.99$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.6	345	60%207 W · 138 L	+11.6wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a7a…7f10backed Halys	28c	89.29$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.29	101	47.5%48 W · 53 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6210…4fb1backed Zverev	59c	84$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.56	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ca6…4b74backed Halys	32c	82$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.76	440	42.3%186 W · 254 L	+13.9wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8637…0c86backed Zverev	61c	81.97$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	28	53.6%15 W · 13 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7179…7d79backed Zverev	67c	75.85$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.79	2,575	46.4%1,195 W · 1,380 L	+15.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0806…4adabacked Halys	42c	71.43$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.43	146	52.7%77 W · 69 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9fc…c14abacked Zverev	59c	67.8$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	26	46.2%12 W · 14 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe22f…49b1backed Halys	46c	65.22$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.22	82	48.8%40 W · 42 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b35…1dcebacked Halys	32c	62.5$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.5	105	54.3%57 W · 48 L	+3.5wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Halys	40c	61.56$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.07	2,343	51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L	+95.2wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f65…38bfbacked Zverev	37c	59.99$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.9	134	66.4%89 W · 45 L	+6.3wins	+0.05per pick	62cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcbbf…0098backed Zverev	69c	57.97$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.6wins	-0.18per pick	52cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x87d6…551abacked Zverev	61c	54.34$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	83	56.6%47 W · 36 L	+3.1wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x31d6…b5c9backed Halys	44c	50.32$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.28	50	42%21 W · 29 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xb2f9…eb15backed Halys	41c	50$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.5	154	51.3%79 W · 75 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x62d6…54e8backed Zverev	59c	50$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.5	20	30%6 W · 14 L	-4.8wins	-0.24per pick	54cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Halys	38c	44.95$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.87	384	46.4%178 W · 206 L	+13.4wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Halys	40c	38.25$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.95	2,404	51.7%1,244 W · 1,160 L	+12.8wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Zverev	63c	30$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.9	830	47%390 W · 440 L	-16.0wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9a4…3926backed Zverev	61c	30$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.3	591	66.7%394 W · 197 L	-1.1wins	0.00per pick	67cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe824…65b4backed Zverev	76c	28.77$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	160	50.6%81 W · 79 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb821…5cddbacked Zverev	59c	28.22$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.65	364	64.3%234 W · 130 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	65cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x8964…427abacked Halys	40c	25$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe35…6789backed Halys	40c	25$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15	173	35.8%62 W · 111 L	+8.8wins	+0.05per pick	31cpaid	+6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdff6…0918backed Zverev	60c	24$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	498	57%284 W · 214 L	-8.9wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a4a…3026backed Zverev	59c	21.37$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.61	213	53.5%114 W · 99 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Zverev	69c	20$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.8	6	83.3%5 W · 1 L	+1.3wins	+0.22per pick	61cpaid	+53%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0ec7…93d1backed Zverev	68c	20$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.65	106	78.3%83 W · 23 L	+11.4wins	+0.11per pick	68cpaid	+15.4%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcf01…d576backed Zverev	63c	16$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.08	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Halys (+2.5)this page
Halys vs. Zverev: Match O/U 36.5Over won
Halys vs. Zverev: Match O/U 40.5Under won
Halys vs. Zverev: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
Quentin Halys vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5Over 3.5 won
Quentin Halys vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 4.5Under 4.5 won
Roland Garros ATP: Quentin Halys vs Alexander ZverevAlexander Zverev won
Set 1 Winner: Halys vs ZverevZverev won
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Halys (+1.5)Zverev won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Halys (+2.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

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