TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Ronaldo Team vs Bubliki (BO5) - LPLOL Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Bublikiof Ronaldo Team, Bubliki
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$136,053
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$154,827

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $136,053 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 194 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa927…8d9fbacked Bubliki67c12,538$8,387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,150.71742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick58cpaid-38.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x372f…182abacked Ronaldo Team0c8,180$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.229258.7%54 W · 38 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x56d6…4404backed Bubliki66c8,024$5,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,693.937452.7%39 W · 35 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd761…56e3backed Bubliki64c6,419$4,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,297.16560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bf9…9f8ebacked Bubliki62c4,756$2,949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,807.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf163…ca34backed Ronaldo Team9c4,567$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.691,47748.3%713 W · 764 L+45.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6eac…e409backed Bubliki60c4,269$2,572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,696.893278.1%25 W · 7 L+8.7wins+0.27per pick51cpaid+48.2%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xa573…3987backed Ronaldo Team29c3,814$1,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,102.697847.4%37 W · 41 L-5.2wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Ronaldo Team31c3,466$1,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,090.721,00747.9%482 W · 525 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Ronaldo Team40c3,446$1,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,389.2915046%69 W · 81 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f9b…efabbacked Bubliki67c3,061$2,061 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,000.17250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-25.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Ronaldo Team35c2,639$931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$930.5520826.9%56 W · 152 L-13.2wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-48.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa1e4…4f8abacked Ronaldo Team32c2,539$816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81613333.8%45 W · 88 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed Bubliki60c2,460$1,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$974.638063.8%51 W · 29 L+12.3wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+41.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xa239…71a5backed Bubliki62c2,422$1,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$919.99742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-22.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d5a…9ed6backed Bubliki63c2,402$1,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$892.31966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked Ronaldo Team37c2,366$884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$884.1711943.7%52 W · 67 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Ronaldo Team26c2,144$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.082,67935.7%957 W · 1,722 L-153.5wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Ronaldo Team41c2,000$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81018336.6%67 W · 116 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed Ronaldo Team1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205920%0 W · 592 L-7.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f18…c9fdbacked Ronaldo Team31c1,983$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6126746.3%31 W · 36 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-13.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f17…7035backed Bubliki64c1,878$1,208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$670.3811567.8%78 W · 37 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Ronaldo Team33c1,816$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.692,20233.3%733 W · 1,469 L-72.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3389…5bcfbacked Ronaldo Team31c1,663$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.493053.3%16 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Ronaldo Team40c1,640$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.611,82639.9%728 W · 1,098 L-61.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Ronaldo Team42c1,622$681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681.2419758.9%116 W · 81 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcec1…9c0cbacked Ronaldo Team37c1,547$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577.0243442.4%184 W · 250 L-18.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x009b…26dabacked Ronaldo Team13c1,440$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.311833.1%39 W · 79 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1de2…bdd7backed Ronaldo Team22c1,392$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.3213421.6%29 W · 105 L-10.9wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-22.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7004…a778backed Bubliki61c1,365$835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.571662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c98…186dbacked Ronaldo Team32c1,272$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.4122142.5%94 W · 127 L-13.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a23…394dbacked Bubliki75c1,250$937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.64666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+35.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54fd…c606backed Bubliki68c1,241$845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.086863.2%43 W · 25 L+13.4wins+0.20per pick44cpaid+43%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x456a…6a90backed Ronaldo Team38c1,222$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.5316942%71 W · 98 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-14%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8e34…4480backed Ronaldo Team46c1,200$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55241343.8%181 W · 232 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb877…4601backed Ronaldo Team14c1,079$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.951,21839.9%486 W · 732 L-65.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-23.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Ronaldo Team36c1,038$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.551,31037.3%489 W · 821 L-86.3wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked Ronaldo Team10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10035545.4%161 W · 194 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde8f…2c72backed Bubliki58c983.64$571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413.13366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+35.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Bubliki67c899.99$607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.782,93844.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L-92.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5011…94b4backed Ronaldo Team33c868.88$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.7324835.1%87 W · 161 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Ronaldo Team23c800$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.132,49547.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L-32.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd72e…c7d2backed Ronaldo Team29c763.77$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.51366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0862…dc29backed Ronaldo Team40c682.81$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.5430643.1%132 W · 174 L-1.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ab6…078ebacked Ronaldo Team30c661.29$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20034250.6%173 W · 169 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f46…9097backed Ronaldo Team29c623$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.44940.8%20 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6b…72d6backed Bubliki66c612.84$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.763100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+60.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x82bf…de71backed Ronaldo Team28c598.78$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.1275342.5%320 W · 433 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c4e…6c11backed Ronaldo Team7c589$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.636749.9%183 W · 184 L+15.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x38fe…a923backed Ronaldo Team40c575$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.211040%4 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x689c…6b1ebacked Bubliki64c569.12$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.6121754.8%119 W · 98 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Ronaldo Team28c567.78$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.711,06347.2%502 W · 561 L-2.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4711…ce32backed Ronaldo Team22c520$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.45825.9%15 W · 43 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-43.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5006…48cabacked Ronaldo Team41c500$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20510539%41 W · 64 L-8.4wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-13.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1362…f403backed Ronaldo Team42c500$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-47.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8953…9b78backed Bubliki78c498.74$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.413652.8%19 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick55cpaid+2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Ronaldo Team32c481.42$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.0724650%123 W · 123 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked Ronaldo Team19c480$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.222930.6%70 W · 159 L-12.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-20.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8da6…107abacked Bubliki63c478.75$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.75862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa917…4e8dbacked Ronaldo Team37c477.99$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.6912850%64 W · 64 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c9d…0bffbacked Ronaldo Team13c470.46$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.3622532.4%73 W · 152 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Ronaldo Team35c449.99$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.0622748%109 W · 118 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+17.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4554…8deebacked Ronaldo Team29c446.53$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.631346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+20.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6832…831fbacked Ronaldo Team32c442.05$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.2519743.7%86 W · 111 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-21.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf95e…1816backed Ronaldo Team30c420$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12619752.8%104 W · 93 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+16.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc48…05bbbacked Ronaldo Team38c409.33$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.451050%5 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x22de…7459backed Bubliki74c405.94$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.944100%4 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+90.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed Ronaldo Team28c400.38$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.18331.3%26 W · 57 L-0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16db…8d0fbacked Ronaldo Team36c400$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14424445.1%110 W · 134 L-8.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x482b…3266backed Bubliki57c399.51$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.289149.5%45 W · 46 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x54d1…13f4backed Ronaldo Team41c392$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.727653.9%41 W · 35 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Ronaldo Team31c388.94$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.371,04750.3%527 W · 520 L+37.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdabd…6adabacked Ronaldo Team42c386$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.1220535.1%72 W · 133 L-11.9wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-23.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x19d0…4699backed Bubliki52c382.62$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+93.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Ronaldo Team22c374.41$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.091,07926%281 W · 798 L-99.0wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-46.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x43fd…021fbacked Ronaldo Team32c366.6$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.481723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-51.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Bubliki76c365.33$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.968743.7%38 W · 49 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbe8…1141backed Ronaldo Team33c364.33$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.74734%16 W · 31 L-5.9wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-30.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Ronaldo Team4c359.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.81140%0 W · 114 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6c5…20d0backed Bubliki57c350.12$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.0546058%267 W · 193 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Ronaldo Team33c348.78$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.7594444.4%419 W · 525 L-31.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Bubliki73c348.24$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.921,23937.3%462 W · 777 L-39.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-27%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8af5…4bbabacked Bubliki80c330$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6616241.4%67 W · 95 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f05…a9b9backed Bubliki58c329.22$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.276850%34 W · 34 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Ronaldo Team11c322.25$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.232,82541.4%1,169 W · 1,656 L-14.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Ronaldo Team25c317.79$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.161,35731.2%423 W · 934 L-129.6wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-43.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed Bubliki80c308.65$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.7357349.4%283 W · 290 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x24d4…4e1dbacked Ronaldo Team46c307.45$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14027142.4%115 W · 156 L-15.1wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3265…cf6bbacked Ronaldo Team44c300$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1321414.3%2 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.16per pick30cpaid-69.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x218b…625abacked Ronaldo Team43c300$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1292714.8%4 W · 23 L-3.7wins-0.14per pick29cpaid-48.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe93c…76ebbacked Ronaldo Team33c286.24$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.338242.7%35 W · 47 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked Ronaldo Team18c275.8$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.0440641.9%170 W · 236 L-16.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-26.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Ronaldo Team5c254.1$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.52,50839.8%999 W · 1,509 L-76.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7600…6b48backed Bubliki79c253.99$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.342369.6%16 W · 7 L+4.2wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+50.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x37a1…bedfbacked Bubliki68c251.2$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.3811344.2%50 W · 63 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Bubliki66c250$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeebb…0b96backed Ronaldo Team33c244.32$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8128235.1%99 W · 183 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe592…74adbacked Ronaldo Team36c243.08$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.036443.8%28 W · 36 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09ce…af35backed Ronaldo Team14c239.48$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5432755.7%182 W · 145 L+17.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c65…fa22backed Ronaldo Team30c236.59$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703844.7%17 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.