Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c8e7ba5da719d8cf2c2cf40bd9099d00c3df0a45a65ef5358cbea0c3bfb4b6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $165,344
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $130,155
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $165,344 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a77…f859backed Yes | 1c | 13,156$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.62 | 153 | 12.4%19 W · 134 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e8…8354backed Yes | 0c | 12,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +319.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes | 0c | 6,116$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 278 | 5%14 W · 264 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -89.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 3c | 6,043$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.72 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 3c | 5,245$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.78 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b2…bab5backed Yes | 1c | 3,102$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +80.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…0528backed Yes | 3c | 2,500$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.5 | 514 | 10.5%54 W · 460 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…8733backed Yes | 14c | 2,500$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 571 | 8.2%47 W · 524 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 6c | 2,120$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.47 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 128 | 10.9%14 W · 114 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7db5…cf18backed Yes | 3c | 1,939$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.19 | 886 | 10.3%91 W · 795 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,806$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.86 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,618$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.16 | 192 | 15.6%30 W · 162 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…897ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,590$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.06 | 155 | 7.7%12 W · 143 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 12c | 1,568$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.98 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…4375backed Yes | 3c | 1,500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 254 | 13.4%34 W · 220 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed Yes | 2c | 1,317$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 174 | 19%33 W · 141 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0f…c18cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,300$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 101 | 5%5 W · 96 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb29c…d8b9backed Yes | 3c | 1,229$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 3c | 1,200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12e0…d6f8backed Yes | 7c | 1,189$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.24 | 250 | 12.8%32 W · 218 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 7c | 1,128$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.89 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 580 | 11.4%66 W · 514 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd09…42d9backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 6c | 899.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 6c | 836.15$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.41 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked Yes | 9c | 800$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.7 | 782 | 8.7%68 W · 714 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5a…edf2backed Yes | 16c | 766.6$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfee1…746fbacked Yes | 20c | 760.41$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.08 | 140 | 22.1%31 W · 109 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 5c | 753.81$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.09 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 7c | 719.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.07 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 19c | 690.06$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.11 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…09c2backed Yes | 15c | 654.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.08 | 129 | 14%18 W · 111 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 14c | 636.19$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.11 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb6…3e31backed Yes | 7c | 610.49$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 122 | 27%33 W · 89 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x514b…6931backed Yes | 20c | 587.36$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.47 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad9f…9971backed Yes | 3c | 547.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 352 | 12.8%45 W · 307 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 6c | 520.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.17 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5aa…c200backed Yes | 8c | 500$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 158 | 20.9%33 W · 125 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeabe…d6edbacked Yes | 4c | 500$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…7e5abacked Yes | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 291 | 13.1%38 W · 253 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb414…067cbacked Yes | 14c | 462.29$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.54 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 3c | 442.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…2cd8backed Yes | 11c | 431.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.47 | 261 | 13.8%36 W · 225 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 8c | 377.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5578backed Yes | 8c | 375.03$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 289 | 12.8%37 W · 252 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…ae4ebacked Yes | 14c | 357.18$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.47 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 5c | 352.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 80c | 351.63$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.33 | 546 | 75.1%410 W · 136 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x580f…e755backed Yes | 16c | 350$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67ef…990abacked Yes | 15c | 308.42$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.26 | 732 | 15.2%111 W · 621 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aed…5925backed Yes | 20c | 307.6$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.52 | 117 | 21.4%25 W · 92 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…3975backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 15c | 287.6$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.14 | 97 | 11.3%11 W · 86 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -63%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcadc…4285backed Yes | 4c | 285.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e8…2352backed Yes | 14c | 285.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3030…86aebacked Yes | 14c | 265.21$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 139 | 11.5%16 W · 123 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3d…5047backed Yes | 6c | 260.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 156 | 5.8%9 W · 147 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +58%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31fb…edf2backed Yes | 20c | 255$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa301…bcbdbacked Yes | 16c | 246.49$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.61 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77d5…eacebacked Yes | 6c | 235.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fac…3e5abacked Yes | 9c | 234.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe608…f6e8backed Yes | 8c | 228.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd928…23cabacked Yes | 10c | 220$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x699b…0296backed Yes | 6c | 215.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 193 | 14%27 W · 166 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 74 | 10.8%8 W · 66 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 185 | 11.4%21 W · 164 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a0…fb10backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 140 | 26.4%37 W · 103 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01da…07bebacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 143 | 20.3%29 W · 114 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0633…5704backed Yes | 7c | 199.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc55f…9475backed Yes | 13c | 199.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fff…3cf1backed Yes | 14c | 149.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e1…7b7cbacked Yes | 14c | 143.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc191…0f9abacked Yes | 21c | 142.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37bd…afd5backed Yes | 15c | 140$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 69 | 17.4%12 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x548a…e37abacked Yes | 8c | 133.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 77 | 16.9%13 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb466…4953backed Yes | 20c | 126$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +307.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 19c | 119.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 350 | 24%84 W · 266 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x984f…ba69backed Yes | 12c | 119.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 158 | 17.7%28 W · 130 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5553…5111backed Yes | 10c | 112.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e3cabacked Yes | 14c | 100.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…e64fbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 91 | 26.4%24 W · 67 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14a6…cca7backed Yes | 11c | 96.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf67b…1ac0backed Yes | 20c | 67.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc13…c991backed Yes | 20c | 58.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 161 | 24.2%39 W · 122 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b90…c1afbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0862…9a02backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e95…133bbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc4…ecf0backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.