World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2830a69b64cdfa492551f56b835a8f7399c1f4ca330381657d4459ca466fb56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,447
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,236
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,447 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 15c | 666.6$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.78 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 6c | 633.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.17 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 17c | 549.75$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.9 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 14c | 534.8$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.42 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 20c | 496.46$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.6 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3848backed Yes | 19c | 468.8$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.1 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…6423backed Yes | 14c | 425.86$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.56 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 12c | 422.47$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.24 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 80c | 411.81$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.94 | 150 | 36.7%55 W · 95 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 15c | 383.51$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.08 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 78c | 366.14$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.37 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 9c | 310.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 107 | 33.6%36 W · 71 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 12c | 306.69$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.41 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 18c | 300$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.85 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1839…a2a2backed Yes | 13c | 300$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.51 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6715…9365backed Yes | 17c | 265.51$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 74 | 27%20 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 31c | 258.81$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.72 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 28c | 232.27$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.21 | 80 | 25%20 W · 60 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 18c | 222.76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 6c | 213.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 10c | 207.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b31…8ee2backed No | 74c | 200$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 27c | 196.7$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.85 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed Yes | 9c | 188.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked Yes | 12c | 186.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x859c…6eafbacked Yes | 11c | 185.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…1d91backed Yes | 8c | 175$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa05f…0003backed Yes | 10c | 168.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +5.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee2a…729bbacked Yes | 12c | 167.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 10c | 156$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked Yes | 8c | 151.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes | 26c | 138.1$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 79c | 130$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 79cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 68c | 127$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.72 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfab1…e45bbacked Yes | 13c | 115.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 10c | 115$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 13c | 112.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 23c | 108.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes | 20c | 108.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 105.87$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed Yes | 15c | 101.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 15c | 100.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 120 | 40.8%49 W · 71 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked Yes | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes | 12c | 94.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 28c | 89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 29c | 83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 14c | 78.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca9…fe9cbacked No | 80c | 78.16$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed Yes | 16c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59ab…c0d2backed Yes | 15c | 68.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 20c | 63.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 19c | 62.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 26c | 61.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5710…b854backed Yes | 24c | 57.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 29c | 55.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec1…e2e3backed No | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 45.81$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 25c | 45.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f7…ad30backed No | 78c | 41.6$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe30d…2aafbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 74c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 69c | 28.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xede4…1c40backed No | 74c | 27.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 73cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 67c | 22.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 72c | 18.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 13.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on July 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.