World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc646e4260977ba12be882daaeba0c79cb4da4786ea7b5ba581a01dddb09a103f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,123
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,187
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,123 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb2a3…09b8backed No | 68c | 1,516$1,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.46 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf57…52f2backed Yes | 28c | 1,323$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 68c | 1,084$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.93 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbec…808bbacked Yes | 44c | 984.31$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 67c | 925.6$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.82 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 25c | 809.56$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 67c | 780.06$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.57 | 149 | 59.7%89 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes | 25c | 723.98$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.8 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 68c | 632.69$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.22 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x417f…d9a9backed Yes | 24c | 627.98$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.95 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 72c | 612.77$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.85 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 34c | 581.17$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked No | 67c | 492.4$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.83 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked No | 62c | 346.8$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.97 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 59c | 327.84$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.19 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 71c | 300$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 280.62$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.22 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 23c | 256.33$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.88 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 71c | 246.28$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 59c | 242.68$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.33 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed No | 73c | 232.08$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.27 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 227$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.49 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 26c | 221.85$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.68 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 69c | 219.27$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.98 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 120 | 40.8%49 W · 71 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 63c | 179.54$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.26 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 26c | 176$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c9…eac8backed No | 56c | 172.45$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.96 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 75c | 167$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.75 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -13.1wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 38c | 157$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.52 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 63c | 155.58$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.31 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 28c | 153.82$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.63 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 21c | 141.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 150 | 36.7%55 W · 95 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 72c | 141.95$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.83 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 71c | 140.04$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 74c | 140$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 29c | 137$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.73 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 29c | 137$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.73 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…6423backed No | 76c | 132.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2660…afa2backed No | 76c | 131$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ded…31ffbacked Yes | 40c | 130$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.57 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 29c | 130$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.28 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 67c | 129.98$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.37 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 68c | 126.34$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.02 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59ab…c0d2backed Yes | 11c | 126.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 27c | 119.74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 66c | 115$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 113.63$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.71 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa05f…0003backed Yes | 23c | 112$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +5.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 40c | 101$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.36 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 29c | 100.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.15 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -7.0wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -27%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 74c | 99.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 11c | 96.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 68c | 95$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 58c | 95$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.57 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 94.9$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 67c | 92.05$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 70c | 87$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 29c | 86.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 83$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 76c | 80.32$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed No | 78c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 23c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6dde…efdfbacked Yes | 25c | 78.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 77c | 78$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 76c | 77.79$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…4be3backed Yes | 27c | 76.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 66c | 75.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 34c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 67c | 65.09$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 66c | 65.04$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 31c | 64.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +40%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 57c | 64.5$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.89 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed No | 58c | 63.54$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.57 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 37c | 62.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x302b…7a54backed Yes | 37c | 61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 38c | 61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 157 | 66.2%104 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58ea…08e0backed No | 76c | 59.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 53c | 54.72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 186 | 69.4%129 W · 57 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3784…1f34backed Yes | 26c | 51.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 37c | 51.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 107 | 33.6%36 W · 71 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 67c | 47.32$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…896ebacked Yes | 26c | 46.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +53%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 65c | 45.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb674…e97abacked Yes | 47c | 42.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked No | 58c | 41.37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca9…fe9cbacked Yes | 32c | 39.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffe…e48bbacked Yes | 31c | 38.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 66c | 35.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 79c | 33.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 45c | 31.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on July 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.