TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on July 27?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$23,123
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,187

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,123 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb2a3…09b8backed No68c1,516$1,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.462458.3%14 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf57…52f2backed Yes28c1,323$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3691566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+30.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No68c1,084$742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.9321844%96 W · 122 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbec…808bbacked Yes44c984.31$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4307623.7%18 W · 58 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No67c925.6$617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.8221854.6%119 W · 99 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes25c809.56$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20023723.2%55 W · 182 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No67c780.06$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.5714959.7%89 W · 60 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes25c723.98$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.83531.4%11 W · 24 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked No68c632.69$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.225317%9 W · 44 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-64.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x417f…d9a9backed Yes24c627.98$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.955052%26 W · 24 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No72c612.77$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.8513646.3%63 W · 73 L-10.5wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-20.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes34c581.17$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004748.9%23 W · 24 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x578d…bbaabacked No67c492.4$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.835957.6%34 W · 25 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+17%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb9e9…f1ccbacked No62c346.8$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.972653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed No59c327.84$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.1913357.1%76 W · 57 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No71c300$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8718445.7%84 W · 100 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No65c280.62$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.2244138.1%168 W · 273 L+27.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes23c256.33$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.8816934.9%59 W · 110 L+11.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No71c246.28$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.9523551.9%122 W · 113 L-0.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No59c242.68$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.3331152.4%163 W · 148 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6548…9108backed No73c232.08$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.2711053.6%59 W · 51 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+8.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No72c227$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.4936055.3%199 W · 161 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7adc…a971backed Yes26c221.85$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.683030%9 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No69c219.27$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.987353.4%39 W · 34 L+10.5wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+18.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No66c200$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6812040.8%49 W · 71 L+10.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+27.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked No63c179.54$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.265843.1%25 W · 33 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes26c176$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.210629.2%31 W · 75 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-26.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0c9…eac8backed No56c172.45$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.96837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick53cpaid-41.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No75c167$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.7511839%46 W · 72 L-13.1wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-19.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes38c157$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.524240.5%17 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No63c155.58$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.315954.2%32 W · 27 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes28c153.82$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.635916.9%10 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes21c141.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3615036.7%55 W · 95 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-30.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed No72c141.95$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.832751.9%14 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc50c…8d41backed No71c140.04$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.251353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No74c140$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.89756.7%55 W · 42 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes29c137$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.733225%8 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes29c137$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.732231.8%7 W · 15 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-30.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3e6…6423backed No76c132.14$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.144045%18 W · 22 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2660…afa2backed No76c131$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ded…31ffbacked Yes40c130$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.57475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick42cpaid+96.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes29c130$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.2818342.6%78 W · 105 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No67c129.98$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.3724637.4%92 W · 154 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No68c126.34$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.0222355.6%124 W · 99 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59ab…c0d2backed Yes11c126.18$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.13321.2%7 W · 26 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick32cpaid-51.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x858b…a2cebacked Yes27c119.74$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.125536.4%20 W · 35 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No66c115$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.212055%66 W · 54 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No61c113.63$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.7132354.2%175 W · 148 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa05f…0003backed Yes23c112$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.45248.1%25 W · 27 L+5.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+9.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes40c101$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3612640.5%51 W · 75 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes29c100.95$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.92728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-44.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed No62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.1511045.5%50 W · 60 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe6e…2313backed No75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30d6…50c3backed Yes39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391850%9 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5425…4c65backed No65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356960.9%42 W · 27 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+22.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed No74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266043.3%26 W · 34 L-7.0wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-27%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed No74c99.99$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263562.9%22 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes11c96.01$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1839231.9%125 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+24%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No68c95$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.7828558.9%168 W · 117 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No58c95$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.576346%29 W · 34 L+6.1wins+0.10per pick36cpaid-2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No66c94.9$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.5223459.8%140 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe396…dce1backed No67c92.05$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.188100%8 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No70c87$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.9426355.9%147 W · 116 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes29c86.88$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.988844.3%39 W · 49 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No75c83$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8839952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No76c80.32$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.3218158%105 W · 76 L+13.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbe44…af27backed No78c80$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes23c80$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.44652.2%24 W · 22 L+5.5wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+10.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6dde…efdfbacked Yes25c78.42$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.99366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+30.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No77c78$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.1118662.4%116 W · 70 L+13.0wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+18.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No76c77.79$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8626632.7%87 W · 179 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3e6…4be3backed Yes27c76.86$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.75862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick45cpaid+23.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No66c75.71$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.424355.8%24 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes34c70$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8216738.3%64 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No67c65.09$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.2418348.6%89 W · 94 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed No66c65.04$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.966261.3%38 W · 24 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+1.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xacb0…4346backed Yes31c64.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.841855.6%10 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+40%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No57c64.5$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.8952850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a2f…e889backed No58c63.54$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.574645.7%21 W · 25 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes37c62.17$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.814344.2%19 W · 24 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-21.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x302b…7a54backed Yes37c61$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.571040%4 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes38c61$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.182536%9 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes33c60.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2018638.2%71 W · 115 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No67c60$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.715766.2%104 W · 53 L+0.5wins0.00per pick66cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58ea…08e0backed No76c59.99$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No53c54.72$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.7214521.4%31 W · 114 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-41.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No72c52$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4618669.4%129 W · 57 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3784…1f34backed Yes26c51.94$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.68250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-26.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes37c51.83$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1888448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.510733.6%36 W · 71 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No67c47.32$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6213155.7%73 W · 58 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x011f…896ebacked Yes26c46.84$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.18475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+53%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x04dc…d572backed No65c45.1$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.972470.8%17 W · 7 L+3.0wins+0.13per pick58cpaid+17.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb674…e97abacked Yes47c42.95$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-23.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa99…29afbacked No58c41.37$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.387236.1%26 W · 46 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ca9…fe9cbacked Yes32c39.85$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.95944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5ffe…e48bbacked Yes31c38.13$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-67.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No66c35.92$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.0844428.8%128 W · 316 L-67.6wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x2706…c6bebacked No79c33.75$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.252250%11 W · 11 L-3.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-23.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed No45c31.58$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.233366.7%22 W · 11 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.