TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on July 27?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,240
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,201

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,240 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 149 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe040…824fbacked No39c1,207$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.5121854.6%119 W · 99 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No45c901.92$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.0314959.7%89 W · 60 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes48c835.52$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.5223723.2%55 W · 182 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes40c567.32$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.9744138.1%168 W · 273 L+27.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked No15c552.26$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.145317%9 W · 44 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-64.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6715…9365backed Yes50c536.41$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.917427%20 W · 54 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes75c444.7$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.7518342.6%78 W · 105 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No35c396.26$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.3522355.6%124 W · 99 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes77c383.85$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.4923044.8%103 W · 127 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No31c310.73$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.8321844%96 W · 122 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No15c304.99$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.539414%55 W · 339 L-71.9wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-73.1%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x858b…a2cebacked Yes73c303.95$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.415536.4%20 W · 35 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No52c300$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15618445.7%84 W · 100 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No54c299.99$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.9913348.1%64 W · 69 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No26c279.75$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.5744428.8%128 W · 316 L-67.6wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes55c273.16$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.7518638.2%71 W · 115 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No48c239$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.7628558.9%168 W · 117 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No46c236.28$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.4523551.9%122 W · 113 L-0.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes57c208.13$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.4116934.9%59 W · 110 L+11.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8383…cb59backed No20c205.54$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.814841.7%20 W · 28 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed Yes51c200.94$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.7513357.1%76 W · 57 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No48c198.77$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.5240648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x302b…7a54backed Yes65c186.93$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.271040%4 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes38c178.34$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.4813646.3%63 W · 73 L-10.5wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-20.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No62c165$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.959756.7%55 W · 42 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbec…808bbacked Yes39c155.6$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.67623.7%18 W · 58 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes58c144.65$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.382653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes65c139.35$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.123531.4%11 W · 24 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4e3…5296backed Yes53c137.49$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.222040%8 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No64c131.44$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.8531152.4%163 W · 148 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ded…31ffbacked Yes51c130$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.25475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick42cpaid+96.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No51c128.37$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.0936055.3%199 W · 161 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ca9…fe9cbacked No33c127.92$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.63944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7adc…a971backed Yes48c121.79$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.333030%9 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No45c118.24$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.0712055%66 W · 54 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No66c117.63$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.418662.4%116 W · 70 L+13.0wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+18.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes31c114$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.142536%9 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked No44c104$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.5212640.5%51 W · 75 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5284…27f5backed No52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4476…c5fcbacked No52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed No52c99.99$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523562.9%22 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed No52c99.97$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.986043.3%26 W · 34 L-7.0wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-27%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No45c97.57$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.975954.2%32 W · 27 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No51c95$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.326355.9%147 W · 116 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2dbe…4f51backed No43c93.02$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.27per pick50cpaid-71%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc50c…8d41backed No46c92.56$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.471353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No39c90.86$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.0813155.7%73 W · 58 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd487…5f32backed Yes56c89.28$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.286955.1%38 W · 31 L+6.4wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+31.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdfb9…9c56backed Yes47c88.07$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.073100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+72.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a9d…a422backed Yes74c86$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.632777.8%21 W · 6 L+6.3wins+0.23per pick54cpaid+40.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes60c84.45$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.7410629.2%31 W · 75 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-26.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a2f…e889backed Yes54c83.83$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.614645.7%21 W · 25 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dde…efdfbacked Yes48c83.31$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.32366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+30.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes57c80$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.5917345.1%78 W · 95 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes52c77.75$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.595547.3%26 W · 29 L+5.8wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+7.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes52c76.74$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.832231.8%7 W · 15 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-30.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No45c70.85$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.84355.8%24 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa99…29afbacked Yes34c70.58$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.587236.1%26 W · 46 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7aa4…4d69backed No57c70.26$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-42.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1894…a936backed Yes80c70.01$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.293262.5%20 W · 12 L+3.6wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+16%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5edc…bbadbacked No38c70$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.88854.5%48 W · 40 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes38c70$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.2216738.3%64 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No25c67.5$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.757335.6%26 W · 47 L+9.4wins+0.13per pick23cpaid+17.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed No54c65.53$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.196261.3%38 W · 24 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+1.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No59c64.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0523459.8%140 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fe2…eb81backed Yes48c64.98$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+109.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f1f…eb96backed Yes42c63.58$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.94944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No18c63.2$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6514521.4%31 W · 114 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-41.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x847e…a592backed Yes52c61.23$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.09771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+27.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9fe5…4745backed Yes50c61$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick31cpaid-7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked Yes38c60$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.25843.1%25 W · 33 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No57c58$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.1139952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93f7…c133backed Yes45c54.91$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.152751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf456…d568backed Yes38c52.44$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.441060%6 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d85…726fbacked No39c51.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.142958.6%17 W · 12 L+3.7wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa58e…daeebacked Yes77c51.67$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.67875%6 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+37%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef1b…764fbacked Yes38c51.28$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.79742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick27cpaid+38.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes39c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.7110733.6%36 W · 71 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3e6…4be3backed Yes50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick45cpaid+23.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No49c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4415766.2%104 W · 53 L+0.5wins0.00per pick66cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No21c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.56556.9%37 W · 28 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No46c47.58$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8914351.7%74 W · 69 L-10.0wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-20.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No47c47.49$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3218348.6%89 W · 94 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3e6…6423backed Yes64c47.16$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.164045%18 W · 22 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed No45c44.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.299558.9%56 W · 39 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3500…07f0backed Yes48c44.65$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.222927.6%8 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-36.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed Yes79c44.31$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.3115355.6%85 W · 68 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes45c43.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.193756.8%21 W · 16 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+21.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No57c43.25$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4746330.2%140 W · 323 L-20.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2706…c6bebacked No55c42.89$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.542250%11 W · 11 L-3.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-23.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes46c42.89$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.152245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68af…2639backed Yes73c42.64$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.64540%2 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick63cpaid-32.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x66d9…3146backed Yes61c41.23$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.232100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+60.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x22a9…0a1abacked No54c40.81$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.99475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick71cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b82…73c3backed No57c40$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.81050%5 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1dca…4183backed No38c39.22$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15875%6 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+60.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes33c38.94$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.197129.6%21 W · 50 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+25.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2cbe…e435backed Yes52c38.46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.464452.3%23 W · 21 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x35fc…ac54backed Yes52c38.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.23366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+53.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes62c37.53$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.1352850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.