TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,885
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,049

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,885 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes28c950.53$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.158,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0036…df65backed No61c733.11$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.6319737.1%73 W · 124 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No72c709.16$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.774,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d85…726fbacked No68c352.97$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.239956.6%226 W · 173 L+12.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes17c329.98$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.33,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf225…42e0backed Yes4c325.76$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4511947.1%56 W · 63 L+8.2wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No57c323.38$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.2347136.5%172 W · 299 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No64c318.79$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.572,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No78c280.8$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.14,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e80…6910backed Yes39c257.26$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005560%33 W · 22 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes31c226.91$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.2265934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x29d4…5d18backed Yes36c223.52$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.525332.1%17 W · 36 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked No73c204.32$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.8327079.3%214 W · 56 L+52.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x4a3f…8af6backed No75c203.98$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.243246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-31.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No52c190.42$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.5612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66d9…3146backed Yes50c157.76$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$793246.9%15 W · 17 L-3.8wins-0.12per pick59cpaid-22.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No67c154.48$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.3379947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc2bc…1485backed Yes47c150$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.56346%29 W · 34 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes46c145.87$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.175,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes43c139.77$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No49c130.49$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.9283459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes56c127$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.751,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1655…08e1backed No55c125.21$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.463063.3%19 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes34c123.81$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.3912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xae22…8794backed Yes42c123.62$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.6746232.9%152 W · 310 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a50…ee23backed Yes39c118.31$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.141520%3 W · 12 L-3.2wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-49.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9210…70a4backed Yes43c118.09$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.553429.4%10 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick34cpaid+16.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3500…07f0backed Yes47c114.22$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.2215527.7%43 W · 112 L-10.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-34.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes30c113.06$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.544,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1201…005bbacked Yes13c107.8$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.41679.6%16 W · 151 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-32.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b31…8ee2backed No71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293366.7%22 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5074338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x972a…aee7backed No75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255547.3%26 W · 29 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+16.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3dd…81b2backed Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304431.8%14 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.0240226.9%108 W · 294 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5284…27f5backed No57c99.28$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.6918240.1%73 W · 109 L-16.6wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-21.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x09c2…8210backed Yes24c99.07$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6754154%292 W · 249 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed No54c91.68$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.382,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked No53c91$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.8563143.1%272 W · 359 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No63c86$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.74,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe396…dce1backed No68c85.3$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.8723666.1%156 W · 80 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No58c84.99$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.5931649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes52c82.48$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.633,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No77c77.2$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.625,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes24c76.17$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4335323.2%82 W · 271 L-16.4wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-54.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No59c71.16$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.131,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked No51c66$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.522,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes23c61$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8870148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No65c60.49$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.363,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes26c60.44$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1654335%190 W · 353 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x109c…9cc4backed Yes49c60$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.152227.3%6 W · 16 L-3.2wins-0.15per pick42cpaid-57.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes47c60$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.256048%269 W · 291 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x470b…c331backed Yes28c60$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.814744.2%65 W · 82 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes33c59.93$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.823,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes33c59$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.373,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x07e9…15dcbacked No78c59$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.983756.8%21 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5f4…3fdbbacked No49c59$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.8627335.9%98 W · 175 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No76c55.61$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.543,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa834…1c25backed Yes28c55.01$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.51,04834.5%362 W · 686 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes39c55$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4554735.5%194 W · 353 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x958a…9f65backed No58c53.9$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.5155855.2%308 W · 250 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No62c51.92$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.882,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes31c51.25$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.647,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x879d…b501backed Yes22c51.01$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0260519.7%119 W · 486 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2457747%271 W · 306 L+40.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe695…538ebacked Yes52c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8581855%450 W · 368 L+1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes27c49.98$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.346,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4374…3d05backed No52c49.57$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.5734151.3%175 W · 166 L-26.9wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-16.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes51c48.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8415630.8%48 W · 108 L+8.9wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No54c48.07$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.2460054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No73c47$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.574,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No73c45$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.12,06774.6%1,542 W · 525 L+23.8wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes50c44.92$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5167633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf216…4844backed Yes34c44.85$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3127246.3%126 W · 146 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes45c44.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2061249.5%303 W · 309 L+30.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2fae…70ddbacked Yes49c41.15$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x97a5…4dbfbacked No48c40.58$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.152650%13 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-10.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc50c…8d41backed No50c40.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.1242366.4%281 W · 142 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c1c…25f0backed Yes50c40.3$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209239.1%36 W · 56 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65c7…e100backed Yes36c39.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.422744.1%100 W · 127 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b58…3550backed Yes41c36.9$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-32.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x64be…c653backed Yes30c35.35$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.74938.8%19 W · 30 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes37c34.49$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8152446.2%242 W · 282 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x304f…7d3cbacked No61c32.58$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.584748.9%23 W · 24 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-18.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x90ae…2475backed No55c31.95$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.3857150.4%288 W · 283 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes33c30.49$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0616335%57 W · 106 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf12d…eeafbacked No50c30.27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.1916733.5%56 W · 111 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed No54c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.8581848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd24b…187dbacked No52c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.461365.3%400 W · 213 L+43.8wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+15.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfaf3…782cbacked No63c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.11,87663%1,181 W · 695 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No54c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.82,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No64c29.03$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.396,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes39c28.72$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.211146.8%52 W · 59 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes40c28$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.111,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7adc…a971backed Yes51c27.13$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7715040%60 W · 90 L+9.9wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked No55c24.63$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.0554253%287 W · 255 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xced2…0d6bbacked No64c24.49$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.8215669.2%108 W · 48 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b84…a108backed Yes45c22.83$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fca…b9b4backed Yes53c22.64$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123262.5%20 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c18…32c3backed No74c22.63$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.81,04362.9%656 W · 387 L-11.9wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.