Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2156baf644d1d0618c486967111601ad204706b46d6fc756ce2dc42bd28670f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,885
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,049
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,885 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 950.53$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.15 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed No | 61c | 733.11$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.63 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 72c | 709.16$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.77 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 68c | 352.97$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.2 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 17c | 329.98$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.3 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf225…42e0backed Yes | 4c | 325.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 57c | 323.38$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.23 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 64c | 318.79$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.57 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 78c | 280.8$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.1 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e80…6910backed Yes | 39c | 257.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 31c | 226.91$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.22 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed Yes | 36c | 223.52$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.52 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked No | 73c | 204.32$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.83 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…8af6backed No | 75c | 203.98$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.24 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 190.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.56 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66d9…3146backed Yes | 50c | 157.76$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 67c | 154.48$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.33 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bc…1485backed Yes | 47c | 150$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 46c | 145.87$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.17 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 43c | 139.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 49c | 130.49$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.92 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 56c | 127$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.75 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1655…08e1backed No | 55c | 125.21$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.46 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 123.81$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.39 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 42c | 123.62$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.67 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a50…ee23backed Yes | 39c | 118.31$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.14 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9210…70a4backed Yes | 43c | 118.09$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.55 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 47c | 114.22$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.22 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 30c | 113.06$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 13c | 107.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b31…8ee2backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972a…aee7backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3dd…81b2backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.02 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 57c | 99.28$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.69 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 24c | 99.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 54c | 91.68$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.38 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 53c | 91$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.85 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 86$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.7 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 68c | 85.3$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.87 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 58c | 84.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.59 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 52c | 82.48$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.63 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 77.2$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 24c | 76.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 59c | 71.16$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.13 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 51c | 66$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 23c | 61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 60.49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 26c | 60.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x109c…9cc4backed Yes | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…c331backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 33c | 59.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 33c | 59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07e9…15dcbacked No | 78c | 59$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked No | 49c | 59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 76c | 55.61$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 28c | 55.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 39c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 58c | 53.9$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 62c | 51.92$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 51.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 22c | 51.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 27c | 49.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 52c | 49.57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 51c | 48.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 54c | 48.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 73c | 47$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 50c | 44.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 34c | 44.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 45c | 44.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fae…70ddbacked Yes | 49c | 41.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97a5…4dbfbacked No | 48c | 40.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 50c | 40.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1c…25f0backed Yes | 50c | 40.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 36c | 39.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b58…3550backed Yes | 41c | 36.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64be…c653backed Yes | 30c | 35.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 37c | 34.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x304f…7d3cbacked No | 61c | 32.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 55c | 31.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes | 33c | 30.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked No | 50c | 30.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 64c | 29.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes | 39c | 28.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 40c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 51c | 27.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 55c | 24.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced2…0d6bbacked No | 64c | 24.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 156 | 69.2%108 W · 48 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b84…a108backed Yes | 45c | 22.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fca…b9b4backed Yes | 53c | 22.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 74c | 22.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C or below on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on July 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.