TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,779
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,701

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,779 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7300…e52cbacked No6c1,076$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.642,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes28c1,060$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$760.6510,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No18c549.9$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.754,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7331…bc39backed Yes29c469$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.749425.5%24 W · 70 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+30.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No69c419.22$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.773,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x302c…abcebacked Yes35c400$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.3316724.6%41 W · 126 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No54c357.76$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.642,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe241…5b42backed No62c343.59$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.038756.3%49 W · 38 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes69c329.31$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.0735323.2%82 W · 271 L-16.4wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-54.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes76c309.15$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.6627079.3%214 W · 56 L+52.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No26c286.11$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.494,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1655…08e1backed No35c268.94$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.033063.3%19 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No73c263.04$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.92,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a16…6004backed Yes79c249.29$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.363369.7%23 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06f2…8798backed No64c245.8$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.8516566.1%109 W · 56 L-8.4wins-0.05per pick71cpaid-8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed No22c239.99$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.33,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No26c230.5$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.236,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No68c229.01$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.735,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No65c228.46$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.51,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7bd…68b0backed Yes62c200$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$765937.3%22 W · 37 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid+7.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No67c199.99$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.6957044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbda1…827fbacked Yes25c199.76$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.7630919.4%60 W · 249 L-17.1wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-50.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed No76c197.6$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.532,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde9c…e014backed Yes60c183.26$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.7325839.9%103 W · 155 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07ea…f3a4backed Yes36c182.08$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.081729.4%5 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a50…ee23backed Yes28c178.68$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.681520%3 W · 12 L-3.2wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-49.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No24c169.13$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes28c150.37$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.2795933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No72c147.58$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.894,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa430…7105backed No68c147.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001770.6%12 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes28c136$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.8429732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfddd…23debacked No72c135.99$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.582075%15 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fe7…1ea9backed Yes75c133.92$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.9515570.3%109 W · 46 L+23.6wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+16.2%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No71c129$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.463,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9210…70a4backed Yes29c120.27$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.393429.4%10 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick34cpaid+16.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No70c113$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.154,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No73c109.89$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.773,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No46c108.59$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.2212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x8d85…726fbacked No18c104.86$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0139956.6%226 W · 173 L+12.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3dd…81b2backed Yes32c104.29$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.574431.8%14 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae22…8794backed Yes67c103.14$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.5746232.9%152 W · 310 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes27c100$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7374338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7aa4…4d69backed No66c91.29$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601250%6 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-29.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5641…6d0dbacked No33c83.48$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8256322.9%129 W · 434 L-32.9wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-41.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No62c77.37$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1379947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No69c70$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.151,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb252…add8backed No73c68.81$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502763%17 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick69cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes36c67$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.882,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe547…271dbacked Yes29c66.37$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.312714.8%4 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-45.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes34c64.69$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.653,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes34c64.5$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.687,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes77c64$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.8733561.5%206 W · 129 L-22.2wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-13.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes23c61.65$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.471,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc50c…8d41backed No68c60$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4142366.4%281 W · 142 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes40c60$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.1556048%269 W · 291 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4374…3d05backed Yes61c59.53$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.4434151.3%175 W · 166 L-26.9wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-16.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No66c58.03$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.381,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No72c56$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.185,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x234c…90dbbacked Yes36c55.56$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.5658138.9%226 W · 355 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No71c55.25$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.382,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf225…42e0backed Yes35c52.52$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.8811947.1%56 W · 63 L+8.2wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6a56…be30backed Yes29c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.446452.2%242 W · 222 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8aa1…b55fbacked Yes77c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.6475%3 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick77cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes39c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.2739427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x276a…d445backed Yes27c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.54632.6%15 W · 31 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No21c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.51,27147.6%605 W · 666 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed Yes70c49.98$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.992,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes36c49.71$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.914,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd970…932abacked Yes26c49$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.268920.2%18 W · 71 L+6.1wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-17.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0036…df65backed No67c48.19$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2819737.1%73 W · 124 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No67c47.5$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.660054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bca…e136backed Yes26c46.47$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.5544536.2%161 W · 284 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x68af…2639backed Yes78c44.87$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.879048.9%44 W · 46 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e58…93e0backed Yes32c44.4$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.053237.5%12 W · 20 L+5.2wins+0.16per pick21cpaid+70.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No64c43.8$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.033,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a68…edd3backed Yes70c42$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6518235.2%64 W · 118 L-14.0wins-0.08per pick43cpaid+7.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x470b…c331backed Yes37c40.22$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.3914744.2%65 W · 82 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ffe…e48bbacked Yes35c40$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266619.7%13 W · 53 L-7.2wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-53.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9edd…013cbacked Yes75c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101872.2%13 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+14.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4b65…a4aebacked Yes29c39.98$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+244.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x958a…9f65backed No31c36.04$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2455855.2%308 W · 250 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf27…f35fbacked No67c35.55$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9915347.1%72 W · 81 L-8.6wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-9.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes42c35$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.362,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No30c35$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5515236.2%55 W · 97 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x322c…8fe9backed No63c34.86$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.964870.8%34 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d62…144dbacked No67c33.93$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.756026.7%16 W · 44 L-19.6wins-0.33per pick59cpaid-61%equal weight24-0.23 edge/pick
0xaf75…005cbacked No70c33.64$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.494755.3%26 W · 21 L-5.9wins-0.13per pick68cpaid-23.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No73c31.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.364,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x648f…4b36backed No64c31.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x422a…dc4bbacked No64c30.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.693661.1%22 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No70c30.34$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.11,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x308f…8607backed No71c30$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.34348.8%21 W · 22 L-4.7wins-0.11per pick60cpaid-23.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x91f4…d093backed Yes35c30$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.5515032%48 W · 102 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfaf3…782cbacked No63c30$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.91,87663%1,181 W · 695 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec42…5ffbbacked No80c30$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8515176.8%116 W · 35 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick76cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No67c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.195852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No54c29.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.22,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No74c27.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3283459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c18…32c3backed No64c25.25$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.161,04362.9%656 W · 387 L-11.9wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe396…dce1backed No74c22.88$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9823666.1%156 W · 80 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.