Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1883492d3176470eeee1beddef6d1334a3fc5ba9e48a0682d43077843170aa7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,488
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,914
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,488 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 7c | 513$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.99 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed Yes | 17c | 295.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.21 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 32c | 268.59$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.77 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 5c | 246.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.55 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 5c | 235.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.08 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 13c | 216.74$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.93 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73ee…eea9backed No | 13c | 167.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 80c | 151.99$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.59 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 27c | 132.49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.27 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 8c | 129.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.6 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 27c | 128.11$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 20c | 124$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.2 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 39c | 105.84$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.78 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 22c | 105.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.27 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78c2…53adbacked Yes | 43c | 103.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.86 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 78c | 91.96$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.73 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 47c | 85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.27 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 59c | 73.25$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 29c | 73.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 48c | 70.61$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 26c | 69.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.41 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08b4…624ebacked Yes | 18c | 62.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.24 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 25c | 59.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 34c | 59.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 24c | 55.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 32c | 44.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 30c | 41.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 28c | 40.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.83 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 76c | 39.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 28c | 35.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 40c | 34.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 54c | 31.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 74c | 26.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 42c | 26.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 49c | 22.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 58c | 20.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…da58backed Yes | 77c | 15.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 78c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on July 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C or below on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on July 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.