Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafca07b1300461a3ba4627a86b97bbfa2e9c75aab83efcf6d2d31ff0fd755fda
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,578
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,132
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,578 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 77c | 3,672$2,841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$831.3 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 20c | 1,980$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.77 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 483.7$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.67 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 206.2$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.64 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 30c | 193.91$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.93 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked Yes | 12c | 192.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 19c | 185.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 28c | 176$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 57c | 167.92$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.81 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked No | 17c | 135.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.05 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…0948backed Yes | 20c | 130.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 72c | 129.71$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.32 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 12c | 129.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea00…1fafbacked No | 62c | 125.72$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.27 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 20c | 124$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 20c | 120$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 47c | 115.64$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 60c | 112.24$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.39 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x329f…81b4backed Yes | 27c | 111.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 30c | 110.77$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.69 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2583…45f8backed Yes | 36c | 110.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 23c | 110$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed Yes | 27c | 107.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 59c | 104$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.07 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 26c | 103.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed Yes | 24c | 99.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 24c | 97.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 89.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 50c | 88.21$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.95 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 30c | 88.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.47 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 21c | 78.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…6805backed Yes | 26c | 78.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 36c | 76.78$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.16 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 64c | 76$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 80c | 75.1$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 41c | 73.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 18c | 72.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 28c | 71.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 19c | 59.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 57c | 59.13$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…5866backed Yes | 36c | 58.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x898e…0ed0backed No | 79c | 52.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 29c | 52.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed Yes | 24c | 52.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 75c | 44.59$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 49c | 44.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…95d5backed No | 73c | 41.81$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 46c | 41.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d6…ea23backed Yes | 51c | 41.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 37.04$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 37c | 37.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 70c | 35.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…5961backed No | 69c | 35.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 32c | 34.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…90d5backed No | 52c | 34.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 31c | 34.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 35c | 29.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 73c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 77c | 28.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 53c | 27.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08b4…624ebacked Yes | 52c | 26.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 58c | 26.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 76c | 25.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 77c | 24.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3749…4094backed No | 74c | 20.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cab…8de4backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 75c | 19.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on July 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C or below on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on July 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on July 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.