World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae0a447ff5c1f0a59bbdd2c72d974e2cc76f54cd1e56c17fd73710e75bb47944
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,587
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,291
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,587 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 63c | 510.68$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.84 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes | 57c | 414.21$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 51c | 405.38$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.76 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34c4…9c93backed Yes | 37c | 363.12$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +132.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 45c | 308.09$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.29 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 13c | 299.32$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 35c | 279.91$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.84 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 50c | 271.53$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.67 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa511…010bbacked Yes | 37c | 260$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 64c | 254.88$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.37 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 27c | 223.56$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.06 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 39c | 200$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.1 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0d…3e25backed Yes | 71c | 199.98$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 40c | 197.53$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.44 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 56c | 189.36$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.44 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…cd1dbacked No | 49c | 188$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.66 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 173.28$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.05 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 61c | 165.26$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.81 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 46c | 162.89$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.02 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 36c | 152.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.54 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1103…fd39backed No | 66c | 152.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 36c | 150.08$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.14 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 56c | 149.5$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.42 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 76c | 143.48$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 78c | 138.87$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 73c | 136.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.03 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd7…b347backed No | 73c | 136.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 80c | 132.24$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.07 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 129.75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.42 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0d…8c4dbacked No | 70c | 126.18$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.06 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 32c | 125$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.5 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 61c | 124.13$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.16 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9a…dbe1backed Yes | 58c | 118.8$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.59 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 38c | 115$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.02 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 60c | 112.25$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.35 | 50 | 72%36 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 37c | 109.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.1 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 23c | 104.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 28c | 103.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 103.13$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.09 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 35c | 102.36$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 27c | 102.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.9 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 47c | 102$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.49 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked No | 61c | 100.21$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.02 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked Yes | 44c | 99.31$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.74 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.77 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +107.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 77c | 91.1$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 89.48$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.63 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 64c | 89.09$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.14 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7166…6922backed No | 61c | 88.96$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 38c | 86.03$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.5 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4500…115dbacked Yes | 75c | 85.48$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 74c | 84.32$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.67 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…3e60backed No | 71c | 75$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.25 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 41c | 73.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcae4…e479backed Yes | 33c | 72.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 36c | 70.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.37 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 22c | 70$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.8 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 35c | 70$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.45 | 107 | 33.6%36 W · 71 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc8…7b89backed No | 72c | 69.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 60c | 68.88$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.02 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 47c | 68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 41c | 67.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked No | 57c | 66.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.18 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 36c | 66.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 20c | 66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6871…7cb8backed Yes | 74c | 64$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3621…9da2backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.21per pick | 22cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c19…075abacked No | 60c | 61.35$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf47c…0091backed No | 60c | 59.4$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…a4e7backed No | 66c | 58.83$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.83 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00ad…4171backed Yes | 60c | 57.78$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +150.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 23c | 57.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 159 | 54.1%86 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 31c | 57.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.62 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 36c | 55.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 46c | 53.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 63c | 52.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 62c | 52.56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 39c | 51.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.56 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0da…2342backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 76c | 50.62$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.47 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 35c | 49.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 82 | 35.4%29 W · 53 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 77c | 46.54$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 150 | 56.7%85 W · 65 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 72c | 45.2$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 145 | 53.8%78 W · 67 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6293…675fbacked Yes | 78c | 44.6$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc059…9531backed No | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 60c | 41.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 59c | 38.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 31c | 38.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 42c | 37.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 70c | 37.56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 37c | 36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 49c | 35.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80a1…a453backed Yes | 43c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +133.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.