World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf77d1c9af045bbd690aaaf15b8300c54b8a33f6193fa25f9c0a83048bea97a17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,146
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,634
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,146 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 13c | 744.95$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.16 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 2c | 612.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed No | 77c | 554.29$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.54 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 25c | 529.88$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.27 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0d…8c4dbacked Yes | 8c | 342.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 308.4$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.46 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 241.05$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 31c | 210.17$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.19 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 154.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.57 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 24c | 118$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 76c | 113.43$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.11 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedba…002dbacked No | 76c | 108.56$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 16c | 106.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 67c | 105$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.12 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe590…a5d4backed Yes | 21c | 104.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 34cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 34c | 99.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 27c | 99.72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 78c | 96.77$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 144 | 67.4%97 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 91$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.23 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 76c | 88$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 75cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 30c | 87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -59%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 24c | 85.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 20c | 84.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1933…1a53backed Yes | 18c | 82.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 32cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 14c | 81.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 77c | 79.68$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb33…19d9backed Yes | 25c | 79.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 70c | 79.11$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.77 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 79c | 75.48$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 75c | 72.95$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 75c | 71.77$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 24c | 71.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 76c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 75 | 82.7%62 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 76cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd7…b347backed No | 75c | 66.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 23c | 65.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…7217backed Yes | 21c | 64.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 64.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 19c | 63.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 62.73$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd92f…acacbacked Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 62$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 27c | 60.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 28c | 59.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 80c | 57$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d39…3881backed No | 72c | 55.22$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 73c | 55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 157 | 66.2%104 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 80c | 54.19$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16bf…07e5backed Yes | 36c | 51.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 77c | 50.61$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 86 | 72.1%62 W · 24 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5201…34c3backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 72c | 48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 25c | 47.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fd…1902backed No | 78c | 40.62$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 60c | 36.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +374.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 41c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 99 | 36.4%36 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 66c | 33.63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked No | 72c | 32.93$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 186 | 69.4%129 W · 57 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 69c | 30.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…9600backed No | 74c | 28.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 68cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3e…79debacked No | 76c | 28.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 52c | 26.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 26.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 78c | 26.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 76c | 26.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 69c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 79c | 23.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed No | 78c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -67%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 72c | 22.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 146 | 56.2%82 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 22.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 87 | 75.9%66 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 58 | 81%47 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 79c | 19.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 60c | 19.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 77c | 18.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +5.7wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 75c | 17.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 65 | 66.2%43 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a96…cf5cbacked No | 72c | 16.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.