Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x136f4901cbb5da29eb3831a8cbca4648de0bc11935f400aa09168309b06e5652
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,401
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,932
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,401 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe7ab…6412backed Yes | 4c | 1,571$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.87 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,030$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.63 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 6c | 589.23$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbf…d779backed Yes | 17c | 530.22$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.61 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.55 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes | 15c | 451.43$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.88 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 3c | 362.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 9c | 305.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 8c | 225$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…0490backed Yes | 9c | 223.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 27c | 146.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f07…7573backed Yes | 12c | 146$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 9c | 108.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 17c | 107.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9c…7be3backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 15c | 99.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 27c | 94.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffc…e6ddbacked No | 79c | 90$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x302b…7a54backed Yes | 14c | 74.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 16c | 68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e1…c79cbacked No | 77c | 65.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8f…1f24backed No | 80c | 65$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 18c | 59.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9bd…4459backed No | 77c | 42.84$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91c0…d4dabacked No | 75c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 53 | 81.1%43 W · 10 L | +8.5wins | +0.16per pick | 65cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on July 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C or below on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on July 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on July 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.