Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48ba2cfcf9852c202f4ab5b548e294b8d0ac9771d0cf54278551ad76ec98ed38
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,852
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,939
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,852 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 1,030$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.76 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes | 49c | 581.81$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.65 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 12c | 572.94$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.31 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 62c | 474$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.9 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 45c | 410.94$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.48 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 27c | 354$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.93 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 73c | 343.96$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.93 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 49c | 331.2$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.4 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 31c | 324.22$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.92 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f05…a9b9backed Yes | 52c | 312.89$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.09 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 44c | 287.69$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.38 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 50c | 229.82$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.44 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 17c | 224.69$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.97 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 31c | 217.23$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.66 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 33c | 210$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.69 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 52c | 207.6$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.96 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 56c | 199.78$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.26 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 53c | 197.26$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.63 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 41c | 193.97$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.98 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 69c | 189.53$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.45 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 36c | 189.27$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.74 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No | 24c | 188.2$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 62c | 179.27$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.83 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes | 59c | 173.83$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 10c | 168.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed No | 33c | 159.81$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.79 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 63c | 158.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.64 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 36c | 142.9$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.68 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 61c | 140$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 29c | 139.68$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.81 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 40c | 135.2$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.2 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f88…cdcbbacked Yes | 78c | 128.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.34 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 40c | 122.06$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.24 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 32c | 122$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.35 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 54c | 113.55$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.51 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 40c | 110.62$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.07 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x116b…cf8ebacked Yes | 55c | 109.64$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.64 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked No | 12c | 109.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.14 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 64c | 106.39$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.89 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked No | 19c | 101.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 19c | 100.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbd…ceeabacked Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 28c | 97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.84 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…0490backed Yes | 28c | 93.93$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.93 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd969…0932backed Yes | 42c | 93.83$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.5 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 48c | 93.61$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 29c | 93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 44c | 88.55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.59 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 18c | 85.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…1c49backed Yes | 75c | 80.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 31c | 77.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 59c | 77.1$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.33 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed No | 40c | 76.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…6d71backed Yes | 35c | 75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 74.33$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.44 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf23…3f54backed Yes | 35c | 72.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.05 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 35c | 72.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 63c | 70.96$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.93 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 73c | 70.84$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf088…00b7backed Yes | 73c | 70$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 74c | 65.82$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…a592backed Yes | 65c | 65$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 57c | 64.05$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.79 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…764fbacked Yes | 47c | 62.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.19 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed Yes | 41c | 60.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.19 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62c8…08d4backed Yes | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 37c | 58.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.45 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed No | 28c | 56.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf23e…fab9backed Yes | 41c | 55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 20cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 65c | 54$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4507…05afbacked Yes | 50c | 52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 62c | 51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fc…16b5backed Yes | 73c | 51$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 67c | 50.58$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…bf7bbacked Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0187…0200backed Yes | 39c | 46.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.18 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x581e…aed3backed Yes | 60c | 45.1$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 41c | 42.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 35c | 40.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e20…06c5backed Yes | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 32c | 39.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 158 | 29.7%47 W · 111 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 46c | 39.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 44c | 38.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 39c | 36.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 55c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 46c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 31c | 32.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66d9…3146backed Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 64c | 32.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 40c | 32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4122backed No | 60c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed Yes | 71c | 31.93$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 79c | 31.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on July 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C or below on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on July 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.