Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x969c18c019b9cad5698e86a462c09f5dbcda85d46af6f2bbf2ac5c0d7d1058c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,466
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,146
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,466 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 51c | 1,336$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.36 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 47c | 767.8$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.64 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 63c | 457.32$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.85 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 436$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.63 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes | 24c | 379.78$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.13 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 369.87$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.11 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 6c | 311.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 80c | 306.74$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.69 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 68c | 299.27$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.87 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 39c | 295.43$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.77 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 35c | 288.85$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.69 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 29c | 267.62$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.97 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 53c | 257.38$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.28 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes | 28c | 235.23$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.57 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 80c | 223$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.65 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 66c | 221$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.14 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 67c | 218.43$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.18 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 17c | 216.15$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 77c | 216$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.25 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 45c | 207.01$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.13 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 46c | 206.63$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.84 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 32c | 200$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 9c | 196.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…2c35backed Yes | 13c | 174.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 28c | 165.9$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.3 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 55c | 160.53$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.23 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 32c | 134.47$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 37c | 134.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 52c | 126.89$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.13 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 61c | 123.58$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.78 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes | 30c | 121.81$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed Yes | 28c | 120.56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 32c | 118.92$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 56c | 117.38$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.95 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 10c | 115.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa7…3767backed No | 54c | 110.18$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 10c | 105.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f05…a9b9backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.1 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…1c49backed Yes | 50c | 99.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 14c | 97.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 79c | 97$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 46c | 96.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.62 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…5123backed Yes | 30c | 87.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 38c | 86.44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 45c | 86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.97 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 45c | 84.66$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 49c | 78.58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.26 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed Yes | 34c | 78.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 53c | 75.78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.35 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 56c | 72.23$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.99 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 76c | 71.87$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf088…00b7backed No | 78c | 69.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed Yes | 22c | 67.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 73c | 67.26$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 66c | 66.36$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed No | 58c | 66$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.79 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 46c | 66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 21c | 62.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 24c | 62.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 56c | 61.34$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 51c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4507…05afbacked Yes | 41c | 58.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…52abbacked No | 54c | 58.43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed Yes | 26c | 56.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 47c | 56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 24c | 54.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 42c | 50.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…6d71backed Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 57c | 49.96$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 69c | 49.91$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 35c | 47.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0187…0200backed Yes | 45c | 46.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 47c | 44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 45c | 43.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 54c | 42.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 50c | 38.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed Yes | 44c | 37.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 46c | 37.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 62c | 34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 45c | 32.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 79c | 32.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…0ad4backed Yes | 42c | 31.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…4f51backed No | 63c | 31.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef6…41afbacked Yes | 48c | 31.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 56c | 30.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 49c | 29.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 39c | 28.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 55c | 28.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 53c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 49c | 22.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf23e…fab9backed Yes | 48c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 20cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 53c | 21.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on July 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C or below on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on July 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on July 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.