TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 8?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$24,404
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$28,600

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,404 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes68c1,570$1,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.479337.6%35 W · 58 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No17c553.73$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.7124637.4%92 W · 154 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No56c440.14$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.768856.8%50 W · 38 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes70c436.51$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.7914842.6%63 W · 85 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd970…932abacked No33c395$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.941910.5%2 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick13cpaid+36.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes58c379.5$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.8811636.2%42 W · 74 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-16.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No31c373.56$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.1216051.9%83 W · 77 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x578d…bbaabacked Yes77c365.94$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.45957.6%34 W · 25 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+17%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No47c332$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.635258%204 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0739…aba8backed Yes59c331.37$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.118636%31 W · 55 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8882…03fbbacked Yes43c324.83$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.945827.6%16 W · 42 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-31.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbea5…2cf0backed No53c324.78$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.892544%11 W · 14 L-3.3wins-0.13per pick57cpaid-30.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No27c288.71$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.3126355.9%147 W · 116 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed No10c284.38$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3823723.2%55 W · 182 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd391…13bdbacked No70c270.85$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f9e…c96bbacked No10c267.49$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.372524%6 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-43%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No10c266.14$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.586346%29 W · 34 L+6.1wins+0.10per pick36cpaid-2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8383…cb59backed No12c248.38$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.054841.7%20 W · 28 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x410f…57febacked No5c223.2$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed No44c214.89$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.8613357.1%76 W · 57 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No39c185$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.9539952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed No7c180$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.510414.4%15 W · 89 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No37c171.45$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.8752850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No37c169.99$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.112249.2%60 W · 62 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd24b…187dbacked Yes68c151$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.294953.1%26 W · 23 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+1.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3721…3abebacked No37c149.99$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562634.6%9 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick27cpaid-5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa200…27b0backed Yes75c139.35$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.496533.8%22 W · 43 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-23.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes60c126.43$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.1411039.1%43 W · 67 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes60c124.04$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.8910629.2%31 W · 75 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-26.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x035b…c6ddbacked No33c122.91$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402352.2%12 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick59cpaid+15.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No49c121.77$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604551.1%23 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+22.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed Yes46c116.63$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.983743.2%16 W · 21 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf045…c619backed Yes44c112.41$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.411145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes46c112$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.485131.4%16 W · 35 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-1.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f1c…ebffbacked No45c107.45$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.852454.2%13 W · 11 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes38c107.16$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.9244138.1%168 W · 273 L+27.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No12c104.58$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3214126.2%37 W · 104 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-26.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x818b…1646backed Yes48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$523100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+102.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes59c100$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.343928.2%11 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-43.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9dc8…7b89backed No52c95.58$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502450%12 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d6e…2427backed Yes46c94.24$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.23450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+15.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb674…e97abacked No35c93.88$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-23.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No16c91.46$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7739414%55 W · 339 L-71.9wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-73.1%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes53c90$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.510733.6%36 W · 71 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes49c89.99$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.2916934.9%59 W · 110 L+11.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes48c80.94$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.0946330.2%140 W · 323 L-20.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed Yes78c80.26$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.7215056.7%85 W · 65 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ea7…7450backed No50c80$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.212075%15 W · 5 L+3.3wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+22.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed Yes58c75.24$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.484259.5%25 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes46c75$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.2510030%30 W · 70 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes41c72.3$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.318638.2%71 W · 115 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed No54c72$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.672347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No24c71.25$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1513748.2%66 W · 71 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x958a…9f65backed No50c70.33$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.993174.2%23 W · 8 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick63cpaid+13.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6780…41ccbacked Yes71c70$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.3757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3738…ed32backed Yes60c63$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.31723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-59%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a5b…7676backed Yes72c60.01$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.81030%3 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick21cpaid+296.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes53c60$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.212640.5%51 W · 75 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No33c59.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7114553.8%78 W · 67 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No45c58.59$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6213155.7%73 W · 58 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed No36c55.06$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9922111.3%25 W · 196 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick12cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes37c54.05$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.0512238.5%47 W · 75 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes52c54.04$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.6821844%96 W · 122 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x859c…6eafbacked No49c53$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.776224.2%15 W · 47 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-18.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49b2…a6dabacked Yes60c51.8$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.771952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d57…11f8backed Yes46c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274100%4 W · 0 L+2.4wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+151.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5201…34c3backed Yes57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.5955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+30.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0f5…8fd4backed Yes67c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.7837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6606…0195backed Yes48c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264146.3%19 W · 22 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb00f…3e60backed Yes68c49.99$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162755.6%15 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No35c48.02$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.046445.3%29 W · 35 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-26%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No41c44.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3615954.1%86 W · 73 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd98…c007backed Yes49c44.89$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.89366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ec1…e2e3backed Yes45c44.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.218736.8%32 W · 55 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f2a…3706backed No42c44$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.484839.6%19 W · 29 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-17.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6548…9108backed Yes42c43.52$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.3411053.6%59 W · 51 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+8.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes63c43.13$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.993345.5%15 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-22.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3621…9da2backed Yes35c42.86$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.861643.8%7 W · 9 L+3.4wins+0.21per pick22cpaid+75.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x425d…6cb0backed Yes59c42.09$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.09666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+23%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No31c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.418348.6%89 W · 94 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes35c40$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268235.4%29 W · 53 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No36c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.25250%26 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1e7…8ffbbacked Yes45c39.92$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.922437.5%9 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+7.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes28c37.98$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.4339231.9%125 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+24%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4526…2d4bbacked No37c37$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.631353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18fd…53efbacked No69c36.44$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfba1…2769backed No55c36.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.22per pick35cpaid-45.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0de9…3d1fbacked No41c35.71$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.75450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes76c34.11$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.0716254.3%88 W · 74 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4232…ade6backed Yes69c33.95$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No59c33.89$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010640.6%43 W · 63 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid+2.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No56c33.14$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7114467.4%97 W · 47 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick66cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No54c31.79$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2115766.2%104 W · 53 L+0.5wins0.00per pick66cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes48c29.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5917345.1%78 W · 95 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes36c29.4$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.952245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45d7…f207backed No53c27.8$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.73333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-47.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5470…b04cbacked Yes72c26.85$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.521560%9 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+23.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No37c26.81$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.041425.6%8 W · 134 L-27.2wins-0.19per pick25cpaid-58.7%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed No67c26.66$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8622029.5%65 W · 155 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc6…d496backed Yes62c26.15$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101181.8%9 W · 2 L+4.1wins+0.37per pick45cpaid+88.2%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.