Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d732a51ecb495b529b17b9914c5a90d16c75222ee33a489cca9acd2e574f41b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,404
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,612
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,404 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 593.22$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.54 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 12c | 341.36$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.54 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 11c | 277.82$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.69 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e7…c275backed Yes | 27c | 238.09$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.49 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 19c | 223.02$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.71 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 10c | 213.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 39c | 193.73$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.41 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 20c | 191.45$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 177$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.64 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 19c | 148.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…5f93backed Yes | 9c | 133.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6361…3ec4backed No | 80c | 130$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…9afebacked Yes | 22c | 120.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 22c | 112.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 79c | 110$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 79c | 105.85$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 77c | 104.36$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 21c | 104.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 76c | 99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 11c | 98.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes | 36c | 97.91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 34c | 91.79$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 26c | 81.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 78c | 78.92$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b73abacked No | 71c | 70.83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 68.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 55c | 67.38$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.32 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 62.07$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0018…83a4backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 66c | 59.79$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 74c | 55.73$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 65c | 50.53$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5749…73abbacked Yes | 27c | 47.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 80c | 44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 25c | 43.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 27c | 40.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 26c | 39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 79c | 37.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 79c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 74c | 30.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 72c | 29.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff5…14babacked No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 153 | 75.2%115 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 26.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 71c | 25.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 22.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 75c | 21.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 74c | 20.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 75c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 16.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 15.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 75c | 15.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 75c | 14.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on July 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on July 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.