Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x909d4dd92a07f40fcb9c3e72dd5b7d0cfe3881b0039540e72d161f93e699f13a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,027
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,299
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,027 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 19c | 536.85$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.92 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 34c | 387.44$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.48 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 18c | 299.96$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.02 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 30c | 278.67$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.44 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 50c | 238.46$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.46 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 45c | 229.91$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.69 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 19c | 206.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 12c | 172.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 51c | 158.82$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.82 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed43…9f9cbacked No | 25c | 153.77$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.12 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 143.98$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.89 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 44c | 141$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.34 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 48c | 135.9$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.59 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca4…9ccbbacked No | 47c | 117.9$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.41 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2e…64a4backed No | 13c | 111.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 51c | 109.07$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.79 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 49c | 103.24$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.65 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 45c | 103$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.35 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 22c | 102.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.12 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 41c | 102$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.38 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 50c | 100.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1a…2987backed No | 49c | 99.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 43c | 99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b73…fe6dbacked Yes | 75c | 98.19$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.19 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 18c | 97.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 53c | 94.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.59 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 24c | 93.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 18c | 90.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 65c | 90$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 51c | 80.45$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.42 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 51c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 28c | 74.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 50c | 73.05$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.43 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b73…02c0backed No | 69c | 72.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 27c | 63.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 44c | 58.73$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed No | 49c | 58.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 47c | 57.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 55c | 56.07$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 52c | 55.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9d…a422backed Yes | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked No | 33c | 52.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 53c | 51.65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.41 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 59c | 50.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…9afebacked Yes | 78c | 50.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 50c | 50.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e2…a783backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 49c | 49.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 56c | 49.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 46c | 49.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 42c | 47.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.41 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 48c | 43.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 51c | 43.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 46c | 43.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 44c | 42.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 47c | 41.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 48c | 40.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked No | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes | 75c | 39.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 149 | 32.9%49 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 49c | 37.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 60c | 37.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 65c | 36.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 52c | 35.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 47c | 35.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 58c | 34.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 62c | 34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 53c | 33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed No | 55c | 32.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 47c | 32.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 47c | 31.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…6f13backed Yes | 67c | 30.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 48c | 30.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 46c | 29.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 56c | 27.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 50c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 68c | 26.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…9a51backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -10.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 70c | 24.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…022ebacked Yes | 45c | 24.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 52c | 24.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 44c | 24.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…5f93backed Yes | 47c | 23.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 65c | 22.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…88d0backed No | 56c | 22.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -7.0wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 47c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c72…825ebacked Yes | 74c | 20.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 69c | 19.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 58c | 19.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 55c | 18.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb335…aac1backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 68c | 14.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on July 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.