World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e84a346134ba4445b3a95e02dad30cd639692fdf9d07040f3af20cb68c8b61e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,247
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,438
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,247 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 15c | 668.25$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3290…53cbbacked Yes | 7c | 541.38$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 90 | 20%18 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 6c | 434.77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 9c | 384.22$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.42 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 355.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.39 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 8c | 336.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 6c | 264.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 8c | 258.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37ff…184ebacked Yes | 26c | 223.96$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes | 11c | 222.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…cd1dbacked Yes | 6c | 206.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 34c | 204.17$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.02 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 15c | 199.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca3…8109backed Yes | 6c | 189.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 10c | 157.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 66c | 150.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.56 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 141.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 26c | 136.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 68c | 130.93$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.74 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f72…82d1backed Yes | 19c | 129.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 78c | 123.82$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.41 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 122.91$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 66c | 96.18$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.37 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…3abebacked Yes | 12c | 95.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 85.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 26c | 80.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b0…67c5backed Yes | 21c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes | 35c | 76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 33c | 74.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 22c | 73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 71c | 70.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 16c | 67.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ed…6d6ebacked Yes | 30c | 66.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 63.57$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 150 | 36.7%55 W · 95 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 29c | 58.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 22c | 58.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 29c | 55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 29c | 53.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 80c | 51.37$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 157 | 66.2%104 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes | 32c | 50.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 34cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 38c | 49.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 82 | 35.4%29 W · 53 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked No | 74c | 47.41$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 71cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed Yes | 32c | 39.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 69c | 38.96$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 75c | 38.57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 71c | 36.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 30c | 36.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 76c | 35.29$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 71c | 34.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 71c | 31.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 86 | 72.1%62 W · 24 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 71c | 31.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 29.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 79c | 26.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 53 | 83%44 W · 9 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 69c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 37 | 78.4%29 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 72cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 75c | 20.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 67 | 65.7%44 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…dc4bbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 95 | 58.9%56 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 67c | 18.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 71c | 15.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd31d…f8bfbacked No | 73c | 13.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 57cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or below on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.