TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,719
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,395

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,719 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfd36…a832backed Yes47c843.27$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.733243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xddc3…000bbacked No10c834.64$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.285234.6%18 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8882…03fbbacked Yes47c548.79$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.295827.6%16 W · 42 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-31.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes54c484.01$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.8411636.2%42 W · 74 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-16.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf33c…488cbacked Yes43c468.22$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.2728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-36.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No51c423.02$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.158856.8%50 W · 38 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes27c298.78$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.4827521.8%60 W · 215 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No53c285.8$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.2335258%204 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No48c279$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.2639952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No45c269.3$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.8340648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3290…53cbbacked Yes56c260.96$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.449020%18 W · 72 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No29c248.07$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.7626355.9%147 W · 116 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes29c247.09$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.5644138.1%168 W · 273 L+27.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes44c246.74$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.3218638.2%71 W · 115 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No42c207.37$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.213748.2%66 W · 71 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0bb…ec4fbacked Yes46c199.99$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1081100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No55c197.82$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.7112055%66 W · 54 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No56c186.14$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.9221844%96 W · 122 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed Yes50c181.23$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.235149%25 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No24c175.11$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5839231.9%125 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+24%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No33c174.45$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.1744428.8%128 W · 316 L-67.6wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No29c174.2$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.3252850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed Yes62c153.07$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5813357.1%76 W · 57 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbea5…2cf0backed No68c147.42$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.992544%11 W · 14 L-3.3wins-0.13per pick57cpaid-30.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No74c141.62$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.5232748.6%159 W · 168 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46b4…72e9backed No54c140$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.951631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No55c139.33$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.1639414%55 W · 339 L-71.9wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-73.1%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes17c138.43$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.284139%16 W · 25 L+4.8wins+0.12per pick27cpaid+45.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No50c116.88$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.441,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked Yes80c108.91$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.081741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No52c100.51$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.6613155.7%73 W · 58 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes34c100$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.2510030%30 W · 70 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ea2…cd1dbacked Yes55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.463828.9%11 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5013268.9%91 W · 41 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x216e…4e32backed Yes71c98.35$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.35333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-53.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x451a…3b01backed No53c93.97$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-19.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No52c86.27$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.8632354.2%175 W · 148 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed No29c84.54$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5922111.3%25 W · 196 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick12cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc426…ac6ebacked No52c83.05$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.04757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+27.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6548…9108backed Yes59c80.03$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3311053.6%59 W · 51 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+8.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4e13…e968backed No52c80$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.630%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x51f0…186cbacked Yes50c80$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401040%4 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes46c75.99$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.1112640.5%51 W · 75 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes34c74.46$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.177030%21 W · 49 L-4.8wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-24.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb0d…3e25backed Yes47c72$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.38475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+32.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f1c…ebffbacked Yes64c70.34$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.542454.2%13 W · 11 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No66c67.85$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.993262.5%20 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick68cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No62c67.34$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.738672.1%62 W · 24 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No74c61.12$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4532639.3%128 W · 198 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes42c60.56$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.3216738.3%64 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes47c60$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.817345.1%78 W · 95 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc8…7b89backed No69c57.65$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402450%12 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No40c55.59$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3416254.3%88 W · 74 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb84c…f36fbacked No35c54.53$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.24922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-18.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3ed…6d6ebacked Yes37c54.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.321428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ec1…e2e3backed Yes38c52.18$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.188736.8%32 W · 55 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe38…6f8ebacked Yes37c51.94$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+169.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No54c51.37$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9515766.2%104 W · 53 L+0.5wins0.00per pick66cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8eea…e285backed Yes57c50.76$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.953339.4%13 W · 20 L+3.4wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+42.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x13bc…f77ebacked Yes34c50.07$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.07650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+43.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfea5…ee06backed Yes49c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.51353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick38cpaid+107.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.16333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-32.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes35c48.34$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.4212238.5%47 W · 75 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No36c47.34$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1112249.2%60 W · 62 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes34c46.85$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.842832.1%9 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2753…e28abacked Yes67c44.64$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.641464.3%9 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick66cpaid+3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No66c42$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.97561.3%46 W · 29 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa259…6597backed No68c42$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.621369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed No69c42$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1811344.2%50 W · 63 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebab…8793backed Yes72c41.41$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.41250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-31%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No68c41.23$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.92556%14 W · 11 L-3.2wins-0.13per pick69cpaid-22.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No50c40.47$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3214954.4%81 W · 68 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No51c40$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.536055.3%199 W · 161 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No53c40$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2111161.3%68 W · 43 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes37c39.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.1916934.9%59 W · 110 L+11.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes34c39.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.368235.4%29 W · 53 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa200…27b0backed No30c38.94$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.696533.8%22 W · 43 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-23.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes31c38.29$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.256126.2%16 W · 45 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+24.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xce46…a9afbacked No68c37.62$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.58333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick66cpaid-53.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes48c37.59$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.58236.6%30 W · 52 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes49c37$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.735131.4%16 W · 35 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-1.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No54c36.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0316850.6%85 W · 83 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9cc…59abbacked No66c36.18$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.995170.6%36 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb04…8b26backed Yes56c35.86$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.86650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No61c35$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.354647.8%22 W · 24 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes33c34$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.762347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+18.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x15b7…4cdebacked No51c33.96$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.32944.4%4 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick68cpaid-38.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4a2f…e889backed Yes59c33$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.534645.7%21 W · 25 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No69c31.94$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.926765.7%44 W · 23 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No51c31.74$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1988448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No58c31.57$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2214467.4%97 W · 47 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick66cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fae…a4bebacked Yes48c31.25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.25250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+4.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0a72…417fbacked Yes32c31.25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No42c30.45$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6916852.4%88 W · 80 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42b7…abffbacked Yes69c30.18$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.442263.6%14 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No51c30.13$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.264551.1%23 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+22.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf75f…b458backed Yes65c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick35cpaid+55.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x50b1…0793backed No50c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151573.3%11 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+16.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes47c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.761735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-21%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No65c30$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.510864.8%70 W · 38 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.