TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$40,627
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$49,025

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,627 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x479d…9cc1backed Yes0c11,702$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes26c509.99$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.32524%6 W · 19 L+0.1wins0.00per pick24cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes35c504.47$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.43450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes35c501.98$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.2211636.2%42 W · 74 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-16.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes11c448.89$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.5227521.8%60 W · 215 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d9a…dbe1backed Yes25c445.59$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.51580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick48cpaid+76.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8882…03fbbacked Yes32c405.4$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.55827.6%16 W · 42 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-31.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes25c399.98$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.142955.2%16 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+17.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes25c393.87$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.1540648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa200…27b0backed Yes22c299.91$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.246533.8%22 W · 43 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-23.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85df…fb48backed Yes6c293.91$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.514630.4%14 W · 32 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-35.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No72c285.8$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.9335258%204 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes16c232.72$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.2939231.9%125 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+24%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes6c202.82$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1444138.1%168 W · 273 L+27.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes26c202$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.2710414.4%15 W · 89 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No72c194.66$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.1212055%66 W · 54 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes21c176.08$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.0126632.7%87 W · 179 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee2a…729bbacked Yes9c167.62$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.725135.3%18 W · 33 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick27cpaid+0.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No70c161$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.5736055.3%199 W · 161 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No67c155.32$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.6613748.2%66 W · 71 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No71c152$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.7632354.2%175 W · 148 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfea5…ee06backed Yes28c146.76$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.981353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick38cpaid+107.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdee0…28d5backed No70c143.36$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.365100%5 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa726…0dadbacked No71c140.4$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.42100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes40c126.2$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8912640.5%51 W · 75 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes24c120.67$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3110733.6%36 W · 71 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa99…29afbacked Yes21c114.28$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247236.1%26 W · 46 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No75c113.99$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.4417952.5%94 W · 85 L-15.0wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-18.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No75c112.17$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.045072%36 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick72cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes29c107.33$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.839414%55 W · 339 L-71.9wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-73.1%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x578d…bbaabacked No74c107.08$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.755957.6%34 W · 25 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+17%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No78c105.05$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.1732748.6%159 W · 168 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No75c105$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.7839952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No76c103.99$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.161,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No77c103.03$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.9526355.9%147 W · 116 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes15c100.01$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0910030%30 W · 70 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed No75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2511045.5%50 W · 60 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.93928.2%11 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-43.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf421…efcebacked Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15234.3%1 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick12cpaid-82.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed No58c100$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.6113357.1%76 W · 57 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked No67c97.37$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.365170.6%36 W · 15 L+5.5wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+15.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes22c95.8$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3121844%96 W · 122 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes18c90.16$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.852147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+20.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No63c90$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.8814445.8%66 W · 78 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes28c89.8$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.218638.2%71 W · 115 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No78c86.44$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.9432639.3%128 W · 198 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No68c82$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.5314954.4%81 W · 68 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0eee…74e8backed Yes20c81.8$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.997020%14 W · 56 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked No75c80.06$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.191741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51dd…4053backed Yes30c79.68$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.82050%10 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No66c79$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.5731152.4%163 W · 148 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6606…0195backed Yes25c78.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.774146.3%19 W · 22 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde8a…a3fcbacked No75c77.49$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.74052.5%21 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6300…41adbacked Yes13c77.2$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No72c71.97$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4816850.6%85 W · 83 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes22c70.68$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.214932.7%16 W · 33 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+13.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3621…9da2backed Yes28c70.38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201643.8%7 W · 9 L+3.4wins+0.21per pick22cpaid+75.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7b20…eb02backed No58c68$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.833641.7%15 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc327…d803backed Yes18c65.27$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.715427.8%15 W · 39 L+0.2wins0.00per pick27cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No75c60$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.045066%33 W · 17 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes22c59.72$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2616738.3%64 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No77c57.08$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.977741.6%32 W · 45 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No71c56.16$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.118762.6%117 W · 70 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No76c55.1$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.4152850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No66c53$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.056346%29 W · 34 L+6.1wins+0.10per pick36cpaid-2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x80e1…47a8backed No76c52.25$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.473551.4%18 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No74c51.38$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.3215766.2%104 W · 53 L+0.5wins0.00per pick66cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes27c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.73240.6%13 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-21.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d3e…c49ebacked No74c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13785.7%6 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick75cpaid+14.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a2f…e889backed No60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.974645.7%21 W · 25 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65c7…e100backed Yes31c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.343046.7%14 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+19.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes33c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4916934.9%59 W · 110 L+11.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd338…9fd3backed Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131957.9%11 W · 8 L-0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7740…a03cbacked Yes25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f1c…ebffbacked No60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.112454.2%13 W · 11 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cf3…ca4abacked No60c49.99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8bc9…c353backed Yes21c49.96$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.73333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+43.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe72b…3c9cbacked No77c49.38$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.411752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+22.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No73c48$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.8513155.7%73 W · 58 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No69c47.34$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4812249.2%60 W · 62 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f4a…f61bbacked No74c39.32$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.141861.1%11 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick56cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes28c37$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.315131.4%16 W · 35 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-1.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No67c34.06$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.3316450.6%83 W · 81 L+0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96b1…8136backed Yes34c32.54$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-30.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No74c32.08$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.3314467.4%97 W · 47 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick66cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No79c31.95$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.8418035.6%64 W · 116 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0e4…4753backed No75c30.23$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.59475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+39.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c0…b105backed No79c30$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.333884.2%32 W · 6 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick73cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xad50…3122backed Yes36c29.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb00f…3e60backed No72c29.98$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.42755.6%15 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No79c29.62$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.164266.7%28 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x13bc…f77ebacked Yes51c29.56$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+43.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No62c29.33$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.1316755.1%92 W · 75 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No75c28.13$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.1316852.4%88 W · 80 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No77c25.56$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.848775.9%66 W · 21 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc278…3144backed No80c25.08$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.08666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick64cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9541…33b5backed No80c25.06$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.063100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+40%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed Yes50c21.5$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.774259.5%25 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47d4…7cf4backed No79c20.83$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No68c19.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.433360.6%20 W · 13 L+5.4wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+48.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.