World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2e20a15bb65b95d055591968ea5380d87b55dfaed3f687ba84edde6f3d7841e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,866
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,758
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,866 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2dfe…a376backed Yes | 0c | 2,027$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1387…24a7backed Yes | 1c | 1,221$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 10c | 884.93$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.86 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 21c | 573.8$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.56 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 511.03$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.61 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 455.5$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.93 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 16c | 334.21$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.08 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +95.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 74c | 321.25$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.32 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 15c | 320.47$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.55 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 290.6$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.64 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 15c | 277.43$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.81 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 274.06$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.89 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 8c | 272$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 9c | 249.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 226.23$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.03 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 16c | 213.2$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…cd1dbacked Yes | 28c | 199.81$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.02 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 29c | 193.14$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 21c | 188.87$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.96 | 107 | 33.6%36 W · 71 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 181.63$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.26 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 74c | 173.38$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.41 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 33c | 163.78$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.54 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 73c | 159.64$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.1 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x405d…bdefbacked Yes | 29c | 158.06$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 24c | 154.89$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfad2…3887backed No | 71c | 140.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 26c | 140.02$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed Yes | 9c | 131.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 27c | 129.69$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.41 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 77c | 125.33$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.23 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 29c | 120.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe775…01d2backed Yes | 10c | 114$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 27c | 111.86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 76c | 110.98$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 50 | 72%36 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed Yes | 23c | 108$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 19c | 107.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 16c | 103$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 14c | 100.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 97.98$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.48 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 97$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee2a…729bbacked Yes | 15c | 94.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 91.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 27c | 90$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 22c | 87.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 78c | 81.43$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 68c | 81.41$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 79c | 78.18$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 27c | 76.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 19c | 74.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 82 | 35.4%29 W · 53 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 32c | 72.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef1e…b5f4backed No | 73c | 70.14$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 68c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 29c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 25c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 73c | 70$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 72c | 69.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 73c | 69.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdee0…28d5backed No | 73c | 68.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 69c | 67.93$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 30c | 65.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 65.19$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 71c | 65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ed…6d6ebacked Yes | 33c | 60.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 59.84$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 157 | 66.2%104 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3290…53cbbacked Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 90 | 20%18 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9b…0cc4backed Yes | 28c | 55.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 70c | 55.44$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4c…1bb0backed Yes | 30c | 54.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 28c | 53.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 20c | 50.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 67c | 50.2$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 28c | 49.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 75c | 47.24$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 146 | 56.2%82 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed No | 70c | 46.51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 73c | 45.69$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 28c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…32a3backed Yes | 24c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 26c | 41.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x521e…a47bbacked Yes | 33c | 41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05cc…1e1dbacked Yes | 31c | 39.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf9…dcdebacked No | 72c | 38.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 28c | 36.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 78c | 32.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 58 | 81%47 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed Yes | 32c | 31.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 67c | 29.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 64c | 26.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 144 | 67.4%97 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.