TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$24,783
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,393

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,783 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes27c2,641$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.129337.6%35 W · 58 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes20c676.71$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.4911636.2%42 W · 74 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-16.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No79c528.3$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.1335258%204 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3290…53cbbacked Yes21c441.27$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.69020%18 W · 72 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes19c420.35$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.6132639.3%128 W · 198 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No79c368.48$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.6713748.2%66 W · 71 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed Yes17c357.13$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.625149%25 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes22c350.48$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$766333.3%21 W · 42 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No71c327.37$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.7616051.9%83 W · 77 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes11c281.84$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.171030%3 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-29.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd970…932abacked Yes19c270$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.991910.5%2 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick13cpaid+36.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8882…03fbbacked Yes21c265.66$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.85827.6%16 W · 42 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-31.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9bd…e555backed No80c250$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504100%4 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No79c248.54$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.1588448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes12c243.46$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9523044.8%103 W · 127 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes18c220.18$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9727521.8%60 W · 215 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41fa…7cc4backed Yes8c209.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.83548.6%17 W · 18 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes23c209$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1810320.4%21 W · 82 L-6.7wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-20.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9ea2…cd1dbacked Yes20c202$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.173828.9%11 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x578d…bbaabacked Yes23c201.72$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.125957.6%34 W · 25 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+17%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No80c199.99$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.7932354.2%175 W · 148 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xddc3…000bbacked Yes20c199.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405234.6%18 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed No78c198.44$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.185030%15 W · 35 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-35.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No76c198.39$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.1723459.8%140 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed No80c197.5$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.52832.1%9 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8283…a336backed No77c195.87$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.87250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick78cpaid-34.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ddd…7996backed No77c187.83$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No75c186.07$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.047353.4%39 W · 34 L+10.5wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+18.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No80c181$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.7839952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes23c173.75$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4623723.2%55 W · 182 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No79c170.39$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.71,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes18c166$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.784216.7%7 W · 35 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes9c150.25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1439231.9%125 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+24%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ebb…405abacked Yes21c150$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.052142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-26%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed No79c148.88$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.7813357.1%76 W · 57 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes14c141.66$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2916934.9%59 W · 110 L+11.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes7c140.84$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4216850.6%85 W · 83 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes19c138$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.126330.2%19 W · 44 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-17.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes20c137.08$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5139414%55 W · 339 L-71.9wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-73.1%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x6897…a4a4backed Yes23c131.06$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8560%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes23c119.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1116738.3%64 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50d8…0a0ebacked No80c118.98$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.173565.7%23 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes17c117.95$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2018158%105 W · 76 L+13.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes13c117.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7318035.6%64 W · 116 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked Yes16c115.62$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.746835.3%24 W · 44 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ec1…e2e3backed Yes26c115.08$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.088736.8%32 W · 55 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No70c114.89$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.9212249.2%60 W · 62 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No76c114.79$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.3415036.7%55 W · 95 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-30.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d45…266cbacked No74c112.23$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+36%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3ed…6d6ebacked Yes29c104.43$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8370…e1efbacked Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204233.3%14 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-19.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked No65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4c1…b2eebacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10825%2 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes34c99.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.714842.6%63 W · 85 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6548…9108backed No77c99.96$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.4911053.6%59 W · 51 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+8.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x216e…4e32backed Yes42c97.95$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-53.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bdd…0872backed No80c95.01$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.013026.7%8 W · 22 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-36.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No77c88.71$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.515558.7%91 W · 64 L+0.8wins0.00per pick58cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No73c80.96$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.9918348.6%89 W · 94 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38d6…d072backed No76c80$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.51662.5%10 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes18c79.55$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2344138.1%168 W · 273 L+27.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x082d…a226backed Yes18c79.17$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No78c77.26$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6432748.6%159 W · 168 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x932b…a773backed Yes20c75.09$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.021136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-34.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No75c72.35$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.176445.3%29 W · 35 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-26%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdee0…28d5backed No70c71.84$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.845100%5 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7eec…c8edbacked No74c71.47$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.58862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5edc…bbadbacked No68c70$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.38854.5%48 W · 40 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c33…38c9backed Yes20c70$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142030%6 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick32cpaid+3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed Yes19c69.32$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.488038.8%31 W · 49 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+12.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb3e6…6423backed No70c69.01$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.014045%18 W · 22 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f4a…f61bbacked No79c68.93$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.481861.1%11 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick56cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a2f…e889backed No74c66.64$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.244645.7%21 W · 25 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes19c65.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.684436.4%16 W · 28 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes28c64.06$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182317.4%4 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-35.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No79c59.18$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.4834354.8%188 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8db4…9c07backed Yes23c58.18$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.092846.4%13 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-13.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb84c…f36fbacked Yes24c56.14$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.34922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-18.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes21c55.82$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.644932.7%16 W · 33 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+13.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x858b…a2cebacked Yes24c55$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.355536.4%20 W · 35 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed No71c54.61$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.645062%31 W · 19 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38c7…806ebacked Yes23c51$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.732128.6%6 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+38.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x87a4…2bd6backed Yes25c50.14$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-46.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5867…cc97backed Yes29c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick32cpaid+114.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x33e8…dc93backed Yes23c49.29$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.341241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+61.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No80c48$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.831152.4%163 W · 148 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No75c46$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.57842.3%33 W · 45 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x859c…6eafbacked Yes26c44.44$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.556224.2%15 W · 47 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-18.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes27c41.24$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1122111.3%25 W · 196 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick12cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a99…7171backed No72c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.23100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No73c39.66$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.6752850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1195…e17fbacked Yes28c39.54$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8c8…b823backed No79c37.89$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.96944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick62cpaid-42.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No76c36.61$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.6711161.3%68 W · 43 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No75c34.67$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.520065%130 W · 70 L+12.7wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc278…3144backed No76c33.71$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.02666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick64cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No79c32$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.7218669.4%129 W · 57 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No76c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.25464.8%35 W · 19 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a85…651fbacked No78c29.73$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-36.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No75c29$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.154564.4%29 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.