TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,637
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$27,406

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,637 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 161 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf11c…680abacked No3c816.32$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes37c636.84$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.7144138.1%168 W · 273 L+27.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes61c561.85$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.6311636.2%42 W · 74 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-16.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No47c528.3$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.1135258%204 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No45c501.95$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.9121844%96 W · 122 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes77c448.76$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.157741.6%32 W · 45 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No23c430.74$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.2752850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes64c376$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.3114842.6%63 W · 85 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No22c338.72$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.7340648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No29c337.82$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.1816051.9%83 W · 77 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3290…53cbbacked Yes48c336.19$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.199020%18 W · 72 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No24c336.17$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.3313748.2%66 W · 71 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes38c293.3$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.2927521.8%60 W · 215 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes36c262.68$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.125749.1%28 W · 29 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No22c258$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.1839952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf045…c619backed Yes66c255.64$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.641145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa054…a95dbacked Yes70c233.26$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.875961%36 W · 23 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+38.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a1f…4877backed Yes35c194.34$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.544231%13 W · 29 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid+7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No60c193.78$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.2132748.6%159 W · 168 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No30c183.24$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.3118762.6%117 W · 70 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x451a…3b01backed No62c170.92$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.31955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-19.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes49c165$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.3310733.6%36 W · 71 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8383…cb59backed No23c162.56$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.044841.7%20 W · 28 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes35c144.94$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.216330.2%19 W · 44 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No63c141.06$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.387561.3%46 W · 29 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed No64c140.78$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.6411344.2%50 W · 63 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No30c131.38$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8818348.6%89 W · 94 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No21c130.49$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6726632.7%87 W · 179 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No62c127.18$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.412556%14 W · 11 L-3.2wins-0.13per pick69cpaid-22.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No57c127.13$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.8439414%55 W · 339 L-71.9wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-73.1%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed No64c124$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.362347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No22c123.06$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4814656.2%82 W · 64 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes41c121.96$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.9618638.2%71 W · 115 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca06…b2c4backed Yes79c119.05$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.1580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No31c114.89$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.312249.2%60 W · 62 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50d8…0a0ebacked No64c114.69$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.843565.7%23 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ed4…7a7dbacked Yes76c112.64$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.531758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed Yes65c110.2$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.5313357.1%76 W · 57 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No61c105.27$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.9732354.2%175 W · 148 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes38c102.89$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.281,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8370…e1efbacked Yes46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$544233.3%14 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-19.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5411045.5%50 W · 60 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No61c99.97$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.9813268.9%91 W · 41 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x858b…a2cebacked Yes40c98.2$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.845536.4%20 W · 35 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed Yes78c97.64$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.95030%15 W · 35 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-35.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c9a…587ebacked Yes47c92.14$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.62560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick35cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ea2…cd1dbacked Yes35c91.15$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.253828.9%11 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No30c88.67$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2815558.7%91 W · 64 L+0.8wins0.00per pick58cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No56c86.64$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.928856.8%50 W · 38 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c1e…a29ebacked Yes51c86.05$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.35850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes36c84.31$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.166330.2%19 W · 44 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-17.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No19c83.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6814954.4%81 W · 68 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes37c83.56$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.3432639.3%128 W · 198 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes54c82.33$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.0312640.5%51 W · 75 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes36c80$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.8716738.3%64 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No32c78.86$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.266445.3%29 W · 35 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-26%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes79c75.15$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.752060%12 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick71cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4a9b…0cc4backed No61c74.5$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.68333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No54c74.42$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.1946330.2%140 W · 323 L-20.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7eec…c8edbacked No35c73.39$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.75862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5edc…bbadbacked No66c70.01$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.238854.5%48 W · 40 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No60c70$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.820065%130 W · 70 L+12.7wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4c33…38c9backed Yes44c70$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.22030%6 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick32cpaid+3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0982…24e3backed Yes33c69.67$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.012055%11 W · 9 L+3.3wins+0.17per pick38cpaid+44%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No56c67$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.8536055.3%199 W · 161 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes38c66.84$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.147030%21 W · 49 L-4.8wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-24.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes33c66$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.011861.1%11 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick56cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No58c62.7$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.2912055%66 W · 54 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a2f…e889backed Yes66c62.31$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.94645.7%21 W · 25 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c70…34c4backed No48c59.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.81758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+36.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No65c59.84$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9715766.2%104 W · 53 L+0.5wins0.00per pick66cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes35c59.84$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.6918035.6%64 W · 116 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf421…efcebacked No35c59.74$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.91234.3%1 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick12cpaid-82.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes80c59.49$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.97353.4%39 W · 34 L+10.5wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+18.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe775…01d2backed Yes76c59.32$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.481136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-33.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xae34…f8bcbacked Yes51c59.16$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.16837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52e7…e3b4backed Yes42c59.14$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.32100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+219%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x34dd…7961backed No65c57.76$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes39c57.72$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.2839231.9%125 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+24%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes72c57.55$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.0744428.8%128 W · 316 L-67.6wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x6606…0195backed Yes45c55.31$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.314146.3%19 W · 22 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No62c55.2$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.234354.8%188 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49c…3bb4backed Yes38c55.17$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.17742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f1c…ebffbacked Yes66c55.09$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.662454.2%13 W · 11 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ecc…c745backed No48c54.64$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.962161.9%13 W · 8 L+3.3wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+32.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes37c54.05$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.0512238.5%47 W · 75 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed No64c52.5$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.610344.7%46 W · 57 L-7.6wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-23.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes37c51.55$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.656333.3%21 W · 42 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x22a4…13e5backed No64c50$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322060%12 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae99…2ed5backed Yes78c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb00f…3e60backed Yes66c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.072755.6%15 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x578d…bbaabacked Yes47c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.55957.6%34 W · 25 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+17%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes37c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.661735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-21%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes37c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.6516934.9%59 W · 110 L+11.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x50b1…0793backed No58c49.98$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.991573.3%11 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+16.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xebf0…2330backed Yes38c48.41$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.08757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+40.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No58c48$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7231152.4%163 W · 148 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No56c47$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.426355.9%147 W · 116 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2429…02d9backed No48c46.43$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.162152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5647…de1dbacked Yes44c45.84$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.843033.3%10 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.