TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 29-July 5?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$200,240
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$182,326

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $200,240 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9b6b…9a8abacked Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20220%0 W · 22 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34af…3bbfbacked Yes2c15,973$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35550%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes5c7,841$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.05205%1 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick9cpaid-80.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes22c6,136$1,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,321.0587828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x744c…e37fbacked Yes35c4,500$1,592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,591.922070%14 W · 6 L+4.0wins+0.20per pick50cpaid+28.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x73b7…7933backed Yes12c4,291$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.332821.4%6 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick21cpaid-45.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1383…0516backed Yes3c3,951$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.552825%7 W · 21 L+4.7wins+0.17per pick8cpaid+526.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4176…fd86backed Yes1c3,390$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1290%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes8c3,287$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.79250%0 W · 25 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf9b7…0a84backed Yes1c3,141$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4050%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c73…688ebacked Yes33c3,015$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3301…4dd8backed Yes3c2,799$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.011024.9%5 W · 97 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-76.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0970…5ae4backed Yes16c2,500$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.4128021.1%59 W · 221 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes1c2,432$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.321970%0 W · 197 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf69b…0a45backed Yes4c1,827$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.339927.3%27 W · 72 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c1,722$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.471,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd18…0e39backed Yes1c1,585$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed No70c1,509$1,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.37163.4%45 W · 26 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x91d7…0dfcbacked Yes21c1,327$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.721241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59bb…6d65backed Yes6c1,268$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.4456.7%3 W · 42 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-89.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8460…63e3backed Yes25c1,200$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x35e2…7e2cbacked No73c1,169$851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.72100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9ff…d3bfbacked Yes5c1,135$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565117.6%9 W · 42 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd14…1c17backed Yes10c1,084$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.115954.2%32 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70d0…918ebacked Yes3c1,035$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-78.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c1,003$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.092922.1%6 W · 286 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick1cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7bf…e441backed No68c999.97$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.991560%9 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf940…3239backed Yes32c988.64$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32050%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x26f0…986bbacked Yes33c980.8$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.1120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2886…4ccbbacked No63c952$602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.84988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.29per pick60cpaid+136.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xba0f…ce35backed Yes8c890.12$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.811225%3 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-56.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes5c875.37$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.3928113.2%37 W · 244 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-68.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00e7…12f5backed No72c872$626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.3450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb78d…835dbacked No70c800$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2402755.6%15 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes12c780.99$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.2358126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaea3…fe61backed No74c648.65$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.653666.7%24 W · 12 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+4.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8314…6767backed Yes15c645.47$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.821323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-59.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x33fb…897cbacked Yes4c604.26$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.625614.3%8 W · 48 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+21.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cd1…8af7backed Yes3c586.15$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.56185.6%1 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-90.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ef…f23cbacked Yes20c586.08$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.431833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x846f…750ebacked No69c573.3$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.7213038.5%50 W · 80 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid+2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1349…f4d8backed Yes27c557$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.72540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab7…d144backed Yes31c555.52$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.25478.5%4 W · 43 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick16cpaid+31.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe774…6457backed Yes3c552.38$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16210%0 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7b…24cabacked Yes3c515.89$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.11922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-56%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2884…d0c3backed Yes5c511$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.142437.5%9 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb462…fc89backed No71c500$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1451163.6%7 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd80…e00dbacked Yes4c500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc409…4d2abacked Yes7c489$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5480%0 W · 48 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb0e…e64bbacked Yes6c461.23$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fe5…3ecdbacked No66c454.55$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.5510100%10 W · 0 L+3.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+71.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x874e…f693backed Yes23c450$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.5450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+21.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadf1…bd6fbacked Yes27c444.44$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdabd…6adabacked Yes45c436$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.22035%7 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fa9…5f77backed No69c432.7$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.75168.6%35 W · 16 L+7.2wins+0.14per pick54cpaid+21.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa5fd…36d1backed Yes4c400$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15110%0 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Yes26c386.69$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10013624.3%33 W · 103 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick25cpaid+4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6ef9…afacbacked Yes29c344.83$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008619.8%17 W · 69 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cc4…b4f2backed Yes27c341.11$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.370%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e51…879abacked Yes6c333.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20248.3%2 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-85.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d7f…4bafbacked Yes31c322.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6768…fa71backed Yes11c315.94$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.671338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-40.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3563…0cebbacked Yes7c279.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-76.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04a1…378abacked Yes4c275$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11110%0 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cf1…6ca1backed No56c254.99$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.151080%8 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2515…5189backed Yes4c250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4760…936fbacked Yes17c237.04$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5650%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5771…3580backed Yes5c229.6$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.44128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-65.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11f8…e629backed No73c221.82$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.773010%3 W · 27 L-5.0wins-0.17per pick27cpaid-81.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6eeb…c3d7backed Yes28c211.7$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.282548%12 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x487d…6813backed Yes8c202.41$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc250…8d6ebacked No75c200$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.925964.4%38 W · 21 L-5.3wins-0.09per pick73cpaid-12%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x571a…1b17backed No70c200$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-33.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe891…4b25backed Yes24c174.78$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e6a…e281backed Yes12c169.84$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+24.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x348f…7b9fbacked Yes30c166.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-43.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b49…9bdcbacked Yes32c157.28$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.98333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-49.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x76ec…d630backed Yes36c154.46$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.54729.7%7 W · 65 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-76%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17cb…d67cbacked Yes36c140$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.43151.6%16 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cad…6feabacked Yes31c139.25$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.173171%22 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x166b…0036backed No80c125$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257100%7 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+45.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x90aa…bb09backed Yes32c110.71$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-59.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x26a6…394abacked Yes32c102.67$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.120%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xac71…f209backed Yes42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc2db…6865backed No57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435757.9%33 W · 24 L+4.6wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+18.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5754…cefbbacked No70c99.64$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.061283.3%10 W · 2 L+2.8wins+0.23per pick60cpaid+36.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xe983…093abacked Yes35c91.82$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.141428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-36.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x88f2…a6c1backed Yes14c91.71$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.951250%6 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd55d…7484backed No64c80$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.83339.4%13 W · 20 L-3.4wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-21.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa324…c18abacked No72c80$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.42657.7%15 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe783…d600backed Yes30c72.37$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9655…ab01backed Yes35c71.43$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34f6…e6c5backed Yes26c71.3$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80d9…a756backed No72c70$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.62650%13 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8844…b7e5backed No74c70$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.1580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.33per pick47cpaid+72%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x71e2…31c4backed No71c70$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.34139%16 W · 25 L+4.1wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+4.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8862…eeabbacked No75c62.6$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.65771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2b3…47b6backed Yes36c62.58$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.53333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick57cpaid-56.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x68ed…fbddbacked No72c61.7$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.282560%15 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd35d…b23ebacked No65c61.54$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.54333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-48.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.