Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 29-July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd758e662c22ebd50e7d2f6b955383b9da416ce9723d473615e2aaf4ef5512a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,593
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,926
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,593 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x744c…e37fbacked Yes | 56c | 6,011$3,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,660.72 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked No | 14c | 5,840$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.23 | 86 | 25.6%22 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed No | 38c | 5,799$2,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,210.57 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed No | 41c | 2,930$1,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,201.12 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x726f…d8e7backed Yes | 59c | 1,511$898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.33 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 9c | 1,200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 212 | 6.6%14 W · 198 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ea…105dbacked No | 18c | 1,000$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1349…f4d8backed Yes | 61c | 668$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…0dfcbacked No | 45c | 542.99$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.61 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f32…efb8backed No | 5c | 532.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 43 | 0%0 W · 43 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed No | 12c | 500$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.86 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00e7…12f5backed No | 43c | 435$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc409…4d2abacked No | 9c | 430$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 48 | 0%0 W · 48 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5655…cad4backed Yes | 79c | 360$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.3 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8862…eeabbacked No | 38c | 329.68$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.49 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…0a45backed Yes | 78c | 300$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72a0…c059backed Yes | 80c | 221.24$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.68 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +14.8wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa42f…5f5abacked No | 31c | 209.23$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.17 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88f2…a6c1backed No | 41c | 203.78$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.75 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c6…0897backed No | 20c | 200.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x571a…1b17backed No | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76b3…3ffebacked Yes | 48c | 200$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe9…bb0abacked Yes | 80c | 197.01$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.65 | 167 | 29.3%49 W · 118 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5482…d034backed No | 14c | 178.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cce…6e85backed No | 10c | 156.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfd…a783backed Yes | 79c | 137$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…e629backed No | 33c | 127.35$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.72 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfb12…d1b3backed No | 11c | 118.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2db…6865backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62ba…31dbbacked Yes | 55c | 91.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.34 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81d…20f7backed No | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd5…aab9backed No | 48c | 72.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd6…c19ebacked No | 54c | 72$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.73 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f1…abbbbacked No | 57c | 70$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 26c | 53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef25…4a1abacked Yes | 44c | 46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd801…b39bbacked Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a47…e66cbacked Yes | 58c | 31.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fc…4273backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3a…9935backed Yes | 56c | 29.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd0…a85bbacked Yes | 51c | 21.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 113 | 28.3%32 W · 81 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 29-July 5?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $46,000 June 29-July 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $48,000 June 29-July 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 29-July 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 29-July 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 29-July 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 29-July 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 June 29-July 5?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 June 29-July 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 29-July 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 29-July 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 29-July 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 29-July 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 29-July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.