Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 29-July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x572e141c13c10dbb352d12b43b078be120d57ee118f7053a0a7153a5faa4becf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $114,006
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,362
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $114,006 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 9c | 13,150$1,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,210.58 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d31…53febacked Yes | 12c | 11,697$1,446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,445.96 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 10c | 7,482$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.39 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c73…688ebacked Yes | 13c | 7,038$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes | 1c | 4,834$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.43 | 40 | 2.5%1 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -94.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ef…039dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,116$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ff…d3bfbacked Yes | 5c | 2,921$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.55 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,280$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,241$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59bb…6d65backed Yes | 3c | 2,090$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.4 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -89.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 7c | 1,771$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.05 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x869c…63d5backed Yes | 4c | 1,591$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.58 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,424$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 212 | 6.6%14 W · 198 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0049…7c79backed Yes | 1c | 1,388$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 1c | 1,305$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 197 | 0%0 W · 197 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 9c | 1,287$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.77 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7633…1a22backed Yes | 6c | 1,201$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.87 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae5…40e1backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 10c | 970.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 136 | 24.3%33 W · 103 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe886…e553backed Yes | 13c | 917.15$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.03 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33fb…897cbacked Yes | 2c | 865.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d9…94c6backed Yes | 10c | 800$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b09…015cbacked Yes | 5c | 725.09$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc409…4d2abacked Yes | 8c | 700$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 48 | 0%0 W · 48 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9026…8df5backed Yes | 2c | 691.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e51…879abacked Yes | 6c | 672.85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f32…efb8backed Yes | 8c | 630$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 43 | 0%0 W · 43 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3301…4dd8backed Yes | 3c | 563.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfd…a783backed Yes | 13c | 551.95$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04a1…378abacked Yes | 19c | 538.46$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76ec…d630backed Yes | 14c | 437.32$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.3 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -76%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe774…6457backed Yes | 3c | 436.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88f2…a6c1backed Yes | 10c | 398.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.41 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5771…3580backed Yes | 5c | 385.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…0dfcbacked Yes | 10c | 335$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e0…72a6backed Yes | 15c | 266.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb202…e10fbacked Yes | 8c | 235.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a0…c059backed Yes | 11c | 212.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +14.8wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked Yes | 13c | 205$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…e629backed Yes | 10c | 179.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…0322backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b12…7a89backed Yes | 15c | 136.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 17cpaid | +161.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6a…e281backed Yes | 11c | 90$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb4…a7b9backed Yes | 20c | 75.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -49%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 29-July 5?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $46,000 June 29-July 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $48,000 June 29-July 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 29-July 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 29-July 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 29-July 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 29-July 5?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 June 29-July 5?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 June 29-July 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 29-July 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 29-July 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 29-July 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 29-July 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 29-July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.