Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 29-July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a0098e14066046f17148b771595a37eb2c9e9dceafea661c0788a770ae1aa3f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $206,830
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $188,994
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $206,830 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xddae…52c4backed Yes | 3c | 15,866$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.85 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 4cpaid | +842%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2305…04f2backed Yes | 1c | 11,038$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.45 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6259…c692backed Yes | 4c | 9,025$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.73 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3900…fb4ebacked Yes | 4c | 7,913$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.72 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34af…3bbfbacked Yes | 4c | 6,812$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf756…3a81backed Yes | 2c | 6,492$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes | 1c | 6,236$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.73 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…0a45backed Yes | 4c | 6,000$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.43 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…e383backed Yes | 5c | 4,110$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.44 | 90 | 4.4%4 W · 86 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe190…0a5dbacked Yes | 3c | 4,010$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.92 | 103 | 1.9%2 W · 101 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfac4…57c2backed Yes | 3c | 3,830$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 3c | 3,199$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.49 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 1c | 3,182$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.3 | 197 | 0%0 W · 197 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd143…83ecbacked Yes | 6c | 2,579$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.71 | 102 | 21.6%22 W · 80 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf274…37f4backed Yes | 1c | 2,510$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 40 | 2.5%1 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -94.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72a0…c059backed Yes | 4c | 2,319$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.22 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +14.8wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3301…4dd8backed Yes | 3c | 2,247$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.88 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd18…0e39backed Yes | 3c | 1,827$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x868e…5392backed Yes | 3c | 1,742$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ade…ac2bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,635$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.3 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e55…760dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,509$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +4.8wins | +0.20per pick | 9cpaid | +125.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 212 | 6.6%14 W · 198 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2884…d0c3backed Yes | 4c | 1,178$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.62 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,118$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6993…3f71backed Yes | 2c | 810.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370a…cd77backed Yes | 4c | 723.72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 2c | 693.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e51…879abacked Yes | 2c | 682.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc409…4d2abacked Yes | 3c | 503.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 48 | 0%0 W · 48 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ad…c163backed Yes | 4c | 481.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 10cpaid | +165.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 2c | 465.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 59 | 0%0 W · 59 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d68…db93backed Yes | 9c | 415.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d8…6fcfbacked Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91b3…77d6backed Yes | 3c | 382.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5771…3580backed Yes | 3c | 333.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f32…efb8backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 43 | 0%0 W · 43 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88a1…a17bbacked Yes | 4c | 299.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -66%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…0dfcbacked Yes | 9c | 242$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 29-July 5?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $46,000 June 29-July 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $48,000 June 29-July 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 29-July 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 29-July 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 29-July 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 29-July 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 29-July 5?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 June 29-July 5?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 June 29-July 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 29-July 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 29-July 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 29-July 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 29-July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.