TailMyPicks
Market

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 6?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,190
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,865

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,190 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes70c988.13$695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.486,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe689…159fbacked No14c839.96$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.5720342.9%87 W · 116 L+20.8wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+55.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd65a…8723backed Yes41c700.43$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.364586.7%39 W · 6 L+16.1wins+0.36per pick51cpaid+79.8%equal weight76+0.23 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes25c410.44$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.0817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed No23c390.13$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.6159923.5%141 W · 458 L-18.3wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x06c2…184fbacked Yes60c372.65$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.933842.1%16 W · 22 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick33cpaid+68.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes24c334$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.341,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x652d…46b3backed No10c298.09$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3661820.7%128 W · 490 L+36.9wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No69c289.84$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.992,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c41…6275backed No30c270.42$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.7626327.8%73 W · 190 L+14.9wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-4.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2002…996bbacked Yes29c238.87$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.756578.5%51 W · 14 L+6.9wins+0.11per pick68cpaid+22.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No14c225.12$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1234219.9%68 W · 274 L+18.6wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbf31…3255backed Yes29c222.94$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.663850%19 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No17c219.98$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.46219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes5c200$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19085330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes18c186.65$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.5477428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1735…0319backed Yes7c182.72$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.191,48015.6%231 W · 1,249 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No50c159.2$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.1412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0b0…298fbacked Yes17c156.03$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.214626%38 W · 108 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+21.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes14c153.21$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.0934633.8%117 W · 229 L+17.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No70c149.9$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.142,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe2fb…1c67backed Yes72c134.61$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.399877.6%76 W · 22 L+16.3wins+0.17per pick61cpaid+38.3%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x3886…b492backed Yes25c130$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.556118.4%103 W · 458 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3024…8ecebacked Yes12c129.87$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.7217237.2%64 W · 108 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No51c129.19$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.294,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes16c120.74$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.293,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes24c100.37$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.229,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ed7…bb28backed Yes22c99.99$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.9912828.1%36 W · 92 L+8.5wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+10.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No42c99.93$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.4512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x2512…9030backed Yes76c98.15$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.567045.7%32 W · 38 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a38…ada9backed Yes24c96.77$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.2223633.1%78 W · 158 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No28c90.62$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.787,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x2f16…063dbacked Yes17c88.63$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.253348.5%16 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4a9…75f9backed No75c87.47$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.7726253.4%140 W · 122 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes28c87.12$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.851,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0fd0…0e22backed Yes24c86.57$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.515328.3%15 W · 38 L-3.9wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-27.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed No76c79.09$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.111,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe64d…5e09backed No22c78.23$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.213315%20 W · 113 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick16cpaid+15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e24…7379backed Yes18c78.07$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.7245619.1%87 W · 369 L-11.8wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes22c77.34$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.267,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd843…5062backed No14c75.25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.55616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick38cpaid-72.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes26c70.81$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.192,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b20…62cbbacked No71c68.39$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5511874.6%88 W · 30 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0198…133bbacked No22c66.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6718452.2%96 W · 88 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No72c66.18$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.632,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes74c63.46$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.438547.5%183 W · 202 L+16.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+24.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f18…5b28backed No73c59.72$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.8626566.4%176 W · 89 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x131d…2a50backed No50c55.02$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6610335.9%37 W · 66 L-15.3wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-38.2%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x4c90…0d14backed Yes27c54.82$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.872835.7%10 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d2f…bad2backed No34c47.58$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.365837.9%22 W · 36 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8208…a737backed No75c47.29$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4222675.7%171 W · 55 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No74c45.29$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.7252571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc2e…c9e1backed No34c41.89$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2420431.9%65 W · 139 L-14.5wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-18.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8a99…1838backed No74c40.8$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.199770.1%68 W · 29 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick75cpaid-7.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ff6…8ac5backed No41c36.28$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.887034.3%24 W · 46 L-6.2wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-37.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xde8b…612fbacked Yes67c33.91$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.182982.8%24 W · 5 L+5.8wins+0.20per pick63cpaid+33.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xfabc…7178backed No75c33.33$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.159176.9%70 W · 21 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick74cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4973…5527backed Yes73c32.11$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7530046.7%140 W · 160 L-8.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d47…10b4backed No46c32.02$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7322344.8%100 W · 123 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdfb…f641backed No79c31.66$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.169164.8%59 W · 32 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick71cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc13…5eb6backed No78c30.96$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1851762.3%322 W · 195 L-15.5wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x23f7…d5e9backed No79c30.35$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242250%11 W · 11 L-3.9wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-33.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc040…d007backed Yes80c28$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fb4…695fbacked No72c27.03$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.445773.7%42 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16d9…f0b0backed No74c26.32$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4828648.3%138 W · 148 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa72a…61debacked No75c25.95$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.51376.9%10 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick74cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e04…d367backed No73c25.5$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.718969.7%62 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef45…8a4dbacked No76c25.43$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.231872.2%13 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick74cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No79c25.3$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.073,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4afa…b3ccbacked No78c25.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.567445.9%34 W · 40 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4f6…eadabacked No74c22.33$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4616575.8%125 W · 40 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No73c22$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.064,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe166…7227backed No70c20.79$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.559779.4%77 W · 20 L+8.9wins+0.09per pick70cpaid+14.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No74c19.96$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7798571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6154…0404backed No74c19.64$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.623580%28 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick74cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes77c19.03$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.38333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-56.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc52a…e37abacked No77c18.74$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.418272%131 W · 51 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick73cpaid-1.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8c81…25cabacked Yes67c18.73$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.1712233.6%41 W · 81 L-10.0wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-16.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No77c17.01$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.11,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39fa…0b7dbacked No72c16.67$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1240777.1%314 W · 93 L+28.1wins+0.07per pick70cpaid+9.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf4c3…4613backed No70c16.63$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.647777.9%60 W · 17 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick71cpaid+8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked Yes77c14.44$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.381,08959.4%647 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4b7…91f8backed No70c14.29$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107777.9%60 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick75cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1246…9fbdbacked No75c14.24$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.68560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.