Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad56ce11a9159ee0c8e95ef179802c435ceabda0f65788ba35c7eee12a8c57f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,134
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,224
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,134 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 2c | 860.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 5c | 602.66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…3255backed No | 66c | 292.04$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.81 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 215.6$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.98 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 40c | 197.12$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.09 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x124b…a12cbacked Yes | 69c | 191.02$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.61 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 157.7$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.04 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 38c | 154.7$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.19 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 45c | 146.17$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.17 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 36c | 120.58$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.94 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b0…298fbacked Yes | 50c | 113.76$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.73 | 146 | 26%38 W · 108 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 59c | 106$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.46 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 39c | 99.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Yes | 48c | 98.87$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.14 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 34c | 98.35$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 59c | 97.51$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.05 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 31c | 93.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd0…0e22backed Yes | 39c | 89.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.76 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…0d14backed Yes | 46c | 87.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked No | 40c | 74.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 48c | 59.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No | 65c | 59.26$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 105 | 69.5%73 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 62c | 56.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c5…2420backed Yes | 43c | 55.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 35c | 54.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 36c | 53.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 39c | 50.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f72…95c9backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 54c | 48.7$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 66c | 48.58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 32c | 45.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…1a68backed No | 60c | 43.2$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 65c | 42.04$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc73d…565abacked Yes | 45c | 41.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42c2…bb4fbacked No | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +98.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 28c | 38.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 66c | 36.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 39c | 35.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 40c | 34.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 62c | 33.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 66c | 31.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa11e…1b2dbacked No | 61c | 31.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 59c | 29.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d22…245cbacked Yes | 38c | 29.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Yes | 38c | 28.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…c694backed Yes | 39c | 28.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x131d…2a50backed Yes | 67c | 24.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -15.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8c…e526backed Yes | 45c | 24.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4925…8f6cbacked No | 64c | 21.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d95…470ebacked Yes | 49c | 21.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 54c | 19.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xce50…6db3backed Yes | 59c | 19.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a0…4a06backed No | 58c | 18.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3868…e317backed No | 61c | 17.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 79c | 16.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e1…0805backed No | 63c | 15.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on April 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.