TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 July 27-August 2?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$158,777
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$138,651

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $158,777 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes8c11,243$849 inLost-$848.6887828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7655…5661backed Yes13c7,320$931 inLost-$931.433930.8%12 W · 27 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-40.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes0c7,246$25 inLost-$24.731466.2%9 W · 137 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xddae…52c4backed Yes0c6,987$28 inLost-$27.953218.8%6 W · 26 L+4.6wins+0.14per pick4cpaid+842%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes1c6,642$75 inLost-$75.41205%1 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick9cpaid-80.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1963…9bfdbacked Yes0c6,150$11 inLost-$10.65130%0 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes10c4,584$470 inLost-$469.8658126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x049b…5a12backed Yes0c4,446$10 inLost-$10.49387.9%3 W · 35 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick3cpaid+403.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74ce…bbdfbacked Yes1c2,700$30 inLost-$29.720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76c8…e383backed Yes1c2,283$25 inLost-$24.67904.4%4 W · 86 L+0.1wins0.00per pick4cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c2,023$99 inLost-$99.271,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf69b…0a45backed Yes8c1,690$138 inLost-$137.539927.3%27 W · 72 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58d9…23f3backed Yes9c1,538$135 inLost-$135.372917.2%5 W · 24 L-3.1wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-72.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x054a…f218backed Yes2c1,327$32 inLost-$31.5283.6%1 W · 27 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-37.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb6e…0f70backed Yes4c1,000$40 inLost-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes8c738.17$57 inLost-$56.7228113.2%37 W · 244 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-68.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3112…c69ebacked Yes12c699.99$84 inLost-$83.86195.3%1 W · 18 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick16cpaid-92.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x997c…251ebacked Yes2c498.39$12 inLost-$11.5111720.5%24 W · 93 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes5c231.97$12 inLost-$12.09190%0 W · 19 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb75…d717backed Yes13c197.69$26 inLost-$26263.8%1 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick14cpaid-91.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd859…38c5backed Yes13c166.63$22 inLost-$21.661437.7%11 W · 132 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14d5…8ba8backed Yes12c150$18 inLost-$18.31338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-34.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x65e6…293ebacked Yes11c133.92$15 inLost-$15850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-18.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d6e…6807backed Yes10c100$10 inLost-$10333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-55%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.