Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 July 27-August 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d5cd88efcaddae1f7be9c99bee06d706e12f57450e1a9c82a8f63cea43030d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $290,945
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $283,599
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $290,945 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd769…f90cbacked Yes | 62c | 33,668$20,891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,890.58 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…4524backed No | 51c | 14,407$7,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,112.07 | 162 | 53.7%87 W · 75 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed No | 68c | 13,207$8,989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,218.07 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x744c…e37fbacked No | 70c | 9,630$6,766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,864.09 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe4fe…324abacked Yes | 11c | 7,543$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdde9…4bd5backed Yes | 37c | 7,104$2,656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,656.4 | 128 | 8.6%11 W · 117 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x533c…2658backed Yes | 23c | 6,538$1,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,503.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed No | 59c | 5,054$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,054.24 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9789…5272backed No | 74c | 4,384$3,238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,146.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed No | 55c | 3,375$1,848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,526.74 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa247…7175backed Yes | 20c | 3,275$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33d9…c9f6backed Yes | 40c | 3,119$1,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,258.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad1f…6c61backed Yes | 15c | 2,790$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.9 | 121 | 29.8%36 W · 85 L | +10.3wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +142.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33b1…af25backed No | 74c | 2,625$1,936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x137f…6689backed No | 64c | 2,576$1,658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$918 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c1…bdb9backed No | 49c | 2,513$1,236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,276.97 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8201…5d39backed Yes | 26c | 2,396$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42fc…9594backed Yes | 25c | 2,206$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.52 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +951%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe891…4b25backed Yes | 29c | 2,136$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.28 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked No | 80c | 2,131$1,696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.42 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe339…e01bbacked No | 45c | 2,131$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,180.99 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +4.2wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x997c…251ebacked Yes | 22c | 2,088$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.46 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d4…64aebacked Yes | 17c | 1,900$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 56c | 1,558$871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.92 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dee…a0f4backed Yes | 31c | 1,552$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.56 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a1…7afebacked Yes | 27c | 1,465$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.7 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x874e…624bbacked Yes | 49c | 1,323$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370d…66aabacked No | 70c | 1,280$895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab7…d144backed Yes | 20c | 1,269$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.5 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc8…f1b3backed No | 78c | 1,200$942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3822…b720backed Yes | 49c | 1,198$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.44 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1b…be0dbacked No | 67c | 1,185$791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.29 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +135.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…01b8backed Yes | 1c | 1,091$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…8bbbbacked Yes | 42c | 1,083$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58d9…23f3backed Yes | 35c | 1,073$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.13 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd14…1c17backed Yes | 52c | 1,035$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.09 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…8748backed Yes | 18c | 1,030$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.49 | 71 | 12.7%9 W · 62 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5482…d034backed Yes | 5c | 1,010$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcddf…5967backed Yes | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc3…73d1backed No | 75c | 999.52$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.88 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6491…e77abacked Yes | 24c | 923.29$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0513…6ee8backed Yes | 33c | 847.55$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.65 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +47%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff03…2a65backed Yes | 42c | 836.94$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63e0…bfd9backed No | 74c | 800$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd33…cf51backed No | 69c | 749.25$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.33 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x805f…54a4backed Yes | 53c | 700$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7655…5661backed No | 52c | 661.11$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.17 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5a…935fbacked Yes | 24c | 658.66$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.07 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6d…fb0cbacked Yes | 29c | 646.19$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80cc…b5a4backed Yes | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f37…77bdbacked Yes | 18c | 555.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6799…62cdbacked Yes | 24c | 530$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f87…2b4dbacked Yes | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d97…d127backed Yes | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aea…b686backed Yes | 38c | 500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb83…0dd9backed Yes | 21c | 481.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ce…3415backed Yes | 24c | 475.68$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 10c | 451.05$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 131 | 17.6%23 W · 108 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa813…04fbbacked Yes | 47c | 379$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.53 | 99 | 64.6%64 W · 35 L | +17.0wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xec83…13f7backed Yes | 28c | 370$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 5cpaid | +464.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6442…cdc3backed Yes | 27c | 369.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.86 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…fbecbacked No | 34c | 350$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.5 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +25%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…470bbacked No | 38c | 338.46$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +381.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa29b…a0b8backed Yes | 45c | 319.4$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.14 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d68…6af4backed No | 46c | 302.77$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 57c | 300.65$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.17 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ce…bbdfbacked Yes | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 26c | 297.29$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.29 | 212 | 6.6%14 W · 198 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd0…a85bbacked Yes | 47c | 282.61$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.13 | 113 | 28.3%32 W · 81 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…0a45backed Yes | 13c | 280.74$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e2…3ad5backed No | 72c | 272.22$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33fb…897cbacked Yes | 15c | 266.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes | 19c | 249.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 120 | 12.5%15 W · 105 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee5e…e5a7backed No | 41c | 241.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcefd…c2ddbacked Yes | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffa9…db6cbacked Yes | 68c | 220.59$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce10…51d4backed No | 46c | 204.81$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.6 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcf…20aebacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04d3…cbdabacked No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…75d2backed Yes | 12c | 198.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea33…735dbacked Yes | 42c | 179$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +363%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf1…6ca1backed No | 61c | 150$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e3…93f2backed Yes | 63c | 140.87$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.75 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4098…f922backed Yes | 40c | 140$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x207c…aedabacked Yes | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…854dbacked Yes | 32c | 129.97$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaac…c198backed No | 80c | 129.1$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe200…4e97backed No | 72c | 124.56$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1874…594fbacked No | 35c | 123$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.95 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +141.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f6b…faabbacked Yes | 19c | 120$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2db…6865backed Yes | 37c | 120$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.35 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…c311backed No | 35c | 113.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.54 | 127 | 36.2%46 W · 81 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc883…4ea1backed No | 73c | 109.25$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.77 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 72cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x439c…b82cbacked Yes | 17c | 103.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x751a…9ea1backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…8003backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 85 | 21.2%18 W · 67 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c3…d0efbacked No | 79c | 92$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 84 | 67.9%57 W · 27 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5e…77f0backed Yes | 12c | 91.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 38c | 90$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.7 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18c7…b3d1backed Yes | 19c | 90$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 July 27-August 2?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 July 27-August 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 July 27-August 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 July 27-August 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 July 27-August 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 July 27-August 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 July 27-August 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 July 27-August 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 July 27-August 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 July 27-August 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 July 27-August 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 July 27-August 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 July 27-August 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.