Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 July 27-August 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6075bce552a796cbf12cd69955b496bbaeb38763b6126ee4f53dfc055b8ed4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $156,677
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $187,545
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $156,677 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6bce…df79backed Yes | 26c | 6,356$1,627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,627.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 1c | 4,303$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed Yes | 3c | 3,934$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 118 | 13.6%16 W · 102 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 4cpaid | +281.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 3c | 3,841$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.71 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4fe…324abacked Yes | 2c | 3,308$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5a…935fbacked Yes | 5c | 2,613$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.47 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ade…ac2bbacked Yes | 4c | 2,468$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.39 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 2,339$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.09 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc01f…cd8ebacked Yes | 5c | 2,278$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dee…a0f4backed Yes | 23c | 2,187$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 19c | 2,179$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.31 | 131 | 17.6%23 W · 108 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x054a…f218backed Yes | 2c | 1,587$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 2c | 1,542$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 197 | 0%0 W · 197 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3822…b720backed Yes | 9c | 1,451$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.06 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad1f…6c61backed Yes | 12c | 1,202$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 121 | 29.8%36 W · 85 L | +10.3wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +142.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58d9…23f3backed Yes | 15c | 1,113$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.59 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x902e…e287backed Yes | 19c | 821.96$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +214.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aea…b686backed Yes | 2c | 799.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9655…3450backed Yes | 4c | 759.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd295…2c3abacked Yes | 4c | 744.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a1…7afebacked Yes | 5c | 717.32$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5771…3580backed Yes | 3c | 616.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f6b…faabbacked Yes | 5c | 580$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf443…1543backed Yes | 2c | 509.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb83…0dd9backed Yes | 3c | 464.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 4c | 451.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe891…4b25backed Yes | 8c | 308.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa19c…de6bbacked Yes | 25c | 285.69$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.75 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3338…1f1dbacked Yes | 6c | 231.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 5c | 228.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 59 | 0%0 W · 59 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58bd…cd15backed No | 80c | 227.7$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.54 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33fb…897cbacked Yes | 7c | 211.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d74…596bbacked Yes | 11c | 209.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -92.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 120 | 12.5%15 W · 105 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 74c | 187.16$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.66 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd770…9bdebacked Yes | 6c | 168$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa813…04fbbacked Yes | 20c | 162.18$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.44 | 99 | 64.6%64 W · 35 L | +17.0wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6685…0622backed Yes | 26c | 149.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb610…c0eabacked Yes | 18c | 68.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaac7…64babacked No | 76c | 47.08$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 77cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x492b…103fbacked No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 69cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe61…e9c2backed No | 73c | 14.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 65cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 July 27-August 2?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 July 27-August 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 July 27-August 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 July 27-August 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 July 27-August 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 July 27-August 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 July 27-August 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 July 27-August 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 July 27-August 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 July 27-August 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 July 27-August 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 July 27-August 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 July 27-August 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.