Token Launches · resolved market
Will Jiankui He launch a memecoin before May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6177425a17779eb44be954f172ca04e75e85c5d06f500e9804ae83d809411d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,933
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,272
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,933 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x88b6…3cffbacked Yes | 7c | 6,534$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 11c | 928.74$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.1 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c2…1750backed Yes | 7c | 922.39$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x416f…18d8backed Yes | 17c | 397$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 375.54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 16c | 331.5$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.36 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…e93fbacked Yes | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c54…7e8cbacked Yes | 16c | 265.64$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 15c | 240$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 76 | 21.1%16 W · 60 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 184$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 18c | 181.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.26 | 64 | 20.3%13 W · 51 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…8f27backed Yes | 15c | 170$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 14c | 152$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 19c | 72.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | -14.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.