Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79ebd820d04abba00bfc5df58bf4cc064674875af9700a4158a880849c20f7cf

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 12, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $612,991
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $376,640

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $612,991 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x689a…779ebacked Yes	0c	57,197$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.48	225	9.8%22 W · 203 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-79.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	0c	50,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes	0c	22,142$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.43	609	7.7%47 W · 562 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	12,443$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.22	1,780	7.4%132 W · 1,648 L	-23.1wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	0c	11,610$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.09	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b57…71d6backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	20	0%0 W · 20 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4648…0953backed Yes	0c	9,987$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	10	10%1 W · 9 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	5cpaid	-76.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8288…5519backed Yes	0c	9,558$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.53	159	29.6%47 W · 112 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes	0c	8,911$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.3	326	13.8%45 W · 281 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes	1c	8,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.24	95	3.2%3 W · 92 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-86.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	3c	7,500$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$209.18	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes	0c	6,240$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.58	186	3.8%7 W · 179 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	6,172$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.39	1,190	8.7%104 W · 1,086 L	+31.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	1c	5,580$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.78	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	1c	5,485$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.09	994	10.6%105 W · 889 L	-30.0wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bff…e08fbacked Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	167	16.2%27 W · 140 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-45.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	0c	5,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	0c	4,846$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.03	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	2c	4,839$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.35	882	10.3%91 W · 791 L	-4.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	1c	4,500$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	4,423$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.44	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes	0c	4,197$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.91	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	-4.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f57…27e4backed Yes	0c	4,143$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.43	71	21.1%15 W · 56 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-49.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	3,525$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.27	2,545	13.2%335 W · 2,210 L	+4.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4f7d…b3ffbacked Yes	0c	3,248$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.04	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5177…2d20backed Yes	6c	3,058$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.54	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	6c	3,000$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.53	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x38fa…26ffbacked Yes	0c	2,852$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	35	60%21 W · 14 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf92d…a225backed Yes	4c	2,725$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.83	233	8.2%19 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf61f…1cf3backed Yes	6c	2,715$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.24	129	19.4%25 W · 104 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f67…2fd3backed Yes	5c	2,559$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.59	60	3.3%2 W · 58 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-78.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc732…45b3backed Yes	4c	2,483$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.65	81	8.6%7 W · 74 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	+122.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2f2…1762backed Yes	4c	2,454$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.12	88	12.5%11 W · 77 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-65.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	1c	2,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x98d6…51dcbacked Yes	5c	1,743$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.3	212	22.2%47 W · 165 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	1c	1,600$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.6	578	11.4%66 W · 512 L	+19.8wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x53bd…5d30backed Yes	6c	1,597$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.85	106	6.6%7 W · 99 L	-4.9wins	-0.05per pick	11cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes	6c	1,562$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.21	312	24.7%77 W · 235 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	3c	1,500$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	2c	1,376$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.77	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad9f…9971backed Yes	5c	1,370$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.8	351	12.8%45 W · 306 L	+6.6wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+23.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf60…c978backed Yes	5c	1,333$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	92	13%12 W · 80 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	1,311$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.95	2,160	3.9%85 W · 2,075 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	2c	1,231$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.95	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	4c	1,216$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.61	245	24.9%61 W · 184 L	-13.8wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-45%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfee1…746fbacked Yes	10c	1,185$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	140	22.1%31 W · 109 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c6c…1f86backed Yes	5c	1,147$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.38	45	24.4%11 W · 34 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-34.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	1,080$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.65	781	8.7%68 W · 713 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes	8c	1,054$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81	397	23.2%92 W · 305 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	3c	1,041$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.36	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes	2c	1,021$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.7	182	4.4%8 W · 174 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	9c	999.99$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.2	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e1a…7690backed Yes	4c	981.92$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.11	124	21.8%27 W · 97 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2cf3…ae6fbacked Yes	3c	928.94$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.53	111	6.3%7 W · 104 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+53.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	5c	910$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.7	826	14.9%123 W · 703 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes	5c	906.07$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.11	186	8.6%16 W · 170 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x699b…0296backed Yes	3c	807.32$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.85	188	14.4%27 W · 161 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+21%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes	4c	724.63$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.38	146	8.2%12 W · 134 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb5a…1537backed Yes	5c	711.42$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.1	155	19.4%30 W · 125 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes	8c	649.3$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes	3c	613.19$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.37	329	17%56 W · 273 L	+13.7wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x514b…6931backed Yes	4c	547.59$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.09	104	41.3%43 W · 61 L	+9.5wins	+0.09per pick	32cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	2c	506.06$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.19	1,036	11.1%115 W · 921 L	+4.8wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xc0f9…a9ddbacked Yes	4c	499.97$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	57	5.3%3 W · 54 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x482f…53f7backed Yes	4c	497.89$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	81	2.5%2 W · 79 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	3cpaid	-60.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	4c	430.5$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.3	1,040	13.7%142 W · 898 L	+38.1wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x255e…a4cdbacked Yes	3c	403.29$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.82	39	10.3%4 W · 35 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8641…e3acbacked Yes	4c	388$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.52	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa639…7135backed Yes	6c	370.06$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.73	48	2.1%1 W · 47 L	-2.2wins	-0.05per pick	7cpaid	-96%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe31…b42dbacked Yes	4c	324.32$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	85	30.6%26 W · 59 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9290…9104backed Yes	5c	317.52$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x035b…c6ddbacked Yes	4c	303.84$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.6wins	+0.09per pick	48cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8fc…d760backed Yes	10c	279.97$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.45	24	33.3%8 W · 16 L	+3.3wins	+0.14per pick	20cpaid	+57.1%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xdfca…645abacked Yes	6c	241$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	278	20.9%58 W · 220 L	-8.0wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe906…ae2bbacked Yes	7c	200$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	81	9.9%8 W · 73 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89f8…6c44backed Yes	8c	163$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.39	33	21.2%7 W · 26 L	+2.6wins	+0.08per pick	13cpaid	+18.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event