Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc66050f8b563553994689667e0c2358b691fc2ebaf404a1393f5e0bde9238e79

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 10, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $199,216
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $74,645

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $199,216 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xf2f2…1762backed Yes	0c	37,084$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.08	88	12.5%11 W · 77 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-65.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa639…7135backed Yes	3c	24,721$646 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$646.44	48	2.1%1 W · 47 L	-2.2wins	-0.05per pick	7cpaid	-96%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	14,295$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.78	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	6,255$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.55	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	0c	5,789$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.05	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc732…45b3backed Yes	1c	2,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	81	8.6%7 W · 74 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	+122.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	6c	1,688$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.82	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	1,676$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.78	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes	6c	1,528$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.8	334	22.2%74 W · 260 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7766…b7f6backed Yes	6c	1,508$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.79	321	10%32 W · 289 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	5c	1,336$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.72	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe096…be8ebacked Yes	1c	1,327$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.23	232	12.1%28 W · 204 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	10c	1,178$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.05	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	2c	1,103$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.18	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98aa…8b8fbacked Yes	3c	1,026$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.02	94	16%15 W · 79 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	2c	1,000$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd421…191cbacked Yes	1c	984.35$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	25	4%1 W · 24 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	-88.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	900.49$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.48	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	3c	872.42$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.27	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	8c	733.35$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.16	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	1c	703.76$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.53	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	2c	678.72$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.58	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	4c	600$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f67…2fd3backed Yes	3c	555$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.65	60	3.3%2 W · 58 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-78.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe31…b42dbacked Yes	2c	545.45$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	85	30.6%26 W · 59 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b21…0954backed Yes	11c	452.81$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.81	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes	3c	436.87$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.02	118	9.3%11 W · 107 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb353…bd7fbacked Yes	11c	410.4$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.14	119	4.2%5 W · 114 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-39.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48a3…bfecbacked Yes	5c	400$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	55	10.9%6 W · 49 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf71c…4dabbacked Yes	6c	333.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	115	7.8%9 W · 106 L	+4.9wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	13c	308.94$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.98	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes	9c	300$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	186	8.6%16 W · 170 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	12c	300$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b55…318fbacked Yes	12c	278.49$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.4	111	14.4%16 W · 95 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	8c	264.38$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.36	576	21.2%122 W · 454 L	+9.9wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9916…8088backed Yes	14c	238.55$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.4	33	24.2%8 W · 25 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	28cpaid	-32.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf88…0343backed Yes	18c	226.9$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	38	18.4%7 W · 31 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes	14c	215$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.1	277	7.9%22 W · 255 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5ced…2c7ebacked Yes	13c	187.77$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	96	14.6%14 W · 82 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes	6c	185.8$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	329	17%56 W · 273 L	+13.7wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6933…0f16backed Yes	9c	177.1$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	475	10.5%50 W · 425 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	6c	174.99$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.32	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	185	11.4%21 W · 164 L	+5.8wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7187…4859backed Yes	16c	99.99$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	233	14.2%33 W · 200 L	-4.7wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bea…0fa7backed Yes	13c	93.69$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.12	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x79de…2ea1backed Yes	12c	87.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.56	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	+0.7wins	+0.05per pick	18cpaid	+27.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes	19c	65.11$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.37	350	24%84 W · 266 L	-10.5wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	80c	27.16$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.43	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event