Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6cbbb0ecc52109b35110708afacde6981adc55dd7fcdc77c44cfaace77e268b

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 12, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $326,455
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $111,685

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $326,455 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x689a…779ebacked Yes	0c	40,456$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.46	225	9.8%22 W · 203 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-79.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4648…0953backed Yes	0c	30,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	10	10%1 W · 9 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	5cpaid	-76.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes	0c	20,263$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.26	609	7.7%47 W · 562 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	6,194$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.15	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	0c	5,704$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.78	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	5,396$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.4	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	1c	4,572$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.95	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xf92d…a225backed Yes	3c	4,325$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.48	233	8.2%19 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	4c	4,000$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.81	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	3,905$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.55	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa639…7135backed Yes	3c	3,579$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.93	48	2.1%1 W · 47 L	-2.2wins	-0.05per pick	7cpaid	-96%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b63…bdd3backed Yes	0c	3,192$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.76	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	3,148$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.44	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	3c	3,000$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.22	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes	2c	2,423$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.56	146	8.2%12 W · 134 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	2c	2,155$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.18	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc732…45b3backed Yes	3c	1,956$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.91	81	8.6%7 W · 74 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	+122.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2f2…1762backed Yes	3c	1,954$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.72	88	12.5%11 W · 77 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-65.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf60…c978backed Yes	2c	1,636$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.9	92	13%12 W · 80 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	1c	1,500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	1,494$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.56	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x53bd…5d30backed Yes	1c	1,414$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.44	106	6.6%7 W · 99 L	-4.9wins	-0.05per pick	11cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe096…be8ebacked Yes	1c	1,219$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.87	232	12.1%28 W · 204 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes	1c	1,211$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.92	182	4.4%8 W · 174 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f67…2fd3backed Yes	2c	1,028$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.52	60	3.3%2 W · 58 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-78.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb042…14f3backed Yes	3c	1,013$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.48	103	25.2%26 W · 77 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde0f…57c1backed Yes	3c	1,006$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	217	6%13 W · 204 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd421…191cbacked Yes	2c	847.56$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	25	4%1 W · 24 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	-88.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	2c	817$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.58	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	6c	813.95$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.61	245	24.9%61 W · 184 L	-13.8wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-45%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2cf3…ae6fbacked Yes	2c	785.21$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.49	111	6.3%7 W · 104 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+53.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x699b…0296backed Yes	2c	769.22$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.78	193	14%27 W · 166 L	+5.9wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb353…bd7fbacked Yes	2c	737.89$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.23	119	4.2%5 W · 114 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-39.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	1c	710.87$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.03	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0504…3799backed Yes	3c	597.01$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.3	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes	5c	533.26$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x11d1…0b41backed Yes	3c	500$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	76	10.5%8 W · 68 L	-4.0wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	4c	499.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.5	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1299…f6b1backed Yes	2c	467.27$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.14	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-76.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc0f9…a9ddbacked Yes	3c	400$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	57	5.3%3 W · 54 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf61f…1cf3backed Yes	3c	392.92$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	129	19.4%25 W · 104 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes	3c	385.79$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.28	316	24.7%78 W · 238 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x482f…53f7backed Yes	6c	324.7$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	81	2.5%2 W · 79 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	3cpaid	-60.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x98d6…51dcbacked Yes	4c	318.93$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.57	215	21.9%47 W · 168 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes	4c	299.68$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.57	186	8.6%16 W · 170 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b3c…b892backed Yes	5c	217.82$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	32	18.8%6 W · 26 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event