Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x040661e45185170d95b2fb6337c26a370aa02e32d43d96f1c971ff1537a15706

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 11, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $312,552
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $157,687

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $312,552 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	11,564$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.96	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	10,187$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.64	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa639…7135backed Yes	5c	10,146$521 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$521.18	48	2.1%1 W · 47 L	-2.2wins	-0.05per pick	7cpaid	-96%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x193a…35c0backed Yes	0c	8,382$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.41	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	-56.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	1c	8,000$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.99	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	0c	7,981$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.94	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes	0c	7,134$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.36	609	7.7%47 W · 562 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6868…5198backed Yes	0c	6,695$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.41	36	16.7%6 W · 30 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	0c	6,013$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.97	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2f2…1762backed Yes	1c	5,787$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.04	88	12.5%11 W · 77 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-65.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	8c	5,513$468 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$468.06	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	2c	5,210$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.52	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	4,781$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.94	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes	1c	4,699$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.52	326	15.6%51 W · 275 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad9f…9971backed Yes	1c	4,026$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.33	352	12.8%45 W · 307 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe089…ad3abacked Yes	1c	3,446$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.45	183	4.4%8 W · 175 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	+235.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes	0c	3,360$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.24	186	3.8%7 W · 179 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	9c	3,182$277 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$277.38	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc732…45b3backed Yes	1c	3,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	81	8.6%7 W · 74 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	+122.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa876…9b4abacked Yes	1c	2,805$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.24	30	23.3%7 W · 23 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb98d…5a68backed Yes	1c	2,732$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	32	9.4%3 W · 29 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb69c…2a0dbacked Yes	0c	2,588$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.68	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x12e0…d6f8backed Yes	1c	2,398$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.8	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfded…c2efbacked Yes	2c	2,233$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.69	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-1.0wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe583…2d98backed Yes	1c	2,137$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.69	114	21.1%24 W · 90 L	+4.1wins	+0.04per pick	17cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x53bd…5d30backed Yes	6c	2,121$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.9	106	6.6%7 W · 99 L	-4.9wins	-0.05per pick	11cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	1c	2,100$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	6c	2,054$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.31	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98aa…8b8fbacked Yes	4c	2,033$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.07	94	16%15 W · 79 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	1c	1,848$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.52	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	7c	1,813$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.43	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	7c	1,809$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.6	576	21.2%122 W · 454 L	+9.9wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a84…3788backed Yes	1c	1,736$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.09	68	23.5%16 W · 52 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	3c	1,720$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.13	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	1c	1,614$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.13	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	2c	1,550$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.41	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	1c	1,500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…27efbacked Yes	1c	1,500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	5cpaid	+27%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	6c	1,421$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.22	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8fd…4373backed Yes	15c	1,299$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-39.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2eb6…3e31backed Yes	3c	1,103$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.24	122	27%33 W · 89 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	3c	1,008$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.84	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7243…8409backed Yes	9c	1,000$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.93	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes	6c	1,000$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62	50	30%15 W · 35 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	26cpaid	+19.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	8c	996.42$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.36	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes	10c	972.5$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.33	334	22.2%74 W · 260 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes	1c	968.08$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.18	182	4.4%8 W · 174 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	2c	876.26$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.65	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa67b…af43backed Yes	6c	838.2$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	159	22.6%36 W · 123 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c70…f74dbacked Yes	1c	836.04$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	32	21.9%7 W · 25 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	834.89$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.81	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x548a…e37abacked Yes	3c	807.7$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	77	16.9%13 W · 64 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	11c	672.76$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.03	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	2c	642.37$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.58	407	19.7%80 W · 327 L	-18.4wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc1dc…09c2backed Yes	14c	632.86$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.6	129	14%18 W · 111 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9916…8088backed Yes	16c	627$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.93	33	24.2%8 W · 25 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	28cpaid	-32.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes	6c	422.6$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.36	329	17%56 W · 273 L	+13.7wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x48a3…bfecbacked Yes	10c	400$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	55	10.9%6 W · 49 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes	5c	368.14$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.79	186	8.6%16 W · 170 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes	4c	341.92$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	421	10%42 W · 379 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad5e…e71fbacked Yes	15c	325.77$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.16per pick	50cpaid	-54.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x299a…3576backed Yes	6c	320.83$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x48c5…2cb2backed Yes	9c	319.28$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	16c	315.06$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.11	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	14c	300$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf88…0343backed Yes	18c	293.15$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.84	38	18.4%7 W · 31 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f5…d8a1backed Yes	6c	287.9$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.53	32	25%8 W · 24 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes	7c	280.16$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.49	340	39.7%135 W · 205 L	-12.6wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0504…3799backed Yes	8c	266.66$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.33	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b55…318fbacked Yes	17c	241.76$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.46	111	14.4%16 W · 95 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes	14c	230$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.44	277	7.9%22 W · 255 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0800…ceb0backed Yes	7c	205.26$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.22	114	30.7%35 W · 79 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x49a5…a67cbacked Yes	6c	200.45$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.51	76	10.5%8 W · 68 L	+2.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+30.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed Yes	10c	162$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.2	101	44.6%45 W · 56 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x582c…eb16backed Yes	14c	150$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	116	13.8%16 W · 100 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x107c…a071backed Yes	14c	150$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	59	20.3%12 W · 47 L	+2.1wins	+0.04per pick	17cpaid	+44.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes	8c	134.7$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.32	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	+1.0wins	+0.06per pick	25cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ced…2c7ebacked Yes	17c	117.65$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	96	14.6%14 W · 82 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc1d2…ec9cbacked Yes	16c	108.88$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.42	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-1.4wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1aed…0b9dbacked Yes	14c	107.14$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	83	32.5%27 W · 56 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-15%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23c9…3c8bbacked Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.2	79	15.2%12 W · 67 L	+2.3wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+21.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e5a…935fbacked Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	48	35.4%17 W · 31 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	32cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6933…0f16backed Yes	17c	100$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	475	10.5%50 W · 425 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7187…4859backed Yes	17c	99.99$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	233	14.2%33 W · 200 L	-4.7wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79de…2ea1backed Yes	15c	87$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.05	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	+0.7wins	+0.05per pick	18cpaid	+27.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12a8…2111backed Yes	16c	86.38$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.82	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes	17c	72.65$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.35	350	24%84 W · 266 L	-10.5wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7127…5dd0backed Yes	15c	70$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a70…1ea4backed Yes	16c	62.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	12	25%3 W · 9 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event