Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a0ffacc5c45939334c7a70645706988252027097390321b662da92f50b01d7e

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 12, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $250,448
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $87,361

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $250,448 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes	0c	27,971$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.11	609	7.7%47 W · 562 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4648…0953backed Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	10	10%1 W · 9 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	5cpaid	-76.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02b4…7092backed Yes	0c	12,025$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.02	83	8.4%7 W · 76 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-69.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf92d…a225backed Yes	2c	11,416$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.65	233	8.2%19 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	570	17.4%99 W · 471 L	+18.2wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa639…7135backed Yes	1c	8,492$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.33	48	2.1%1 W · 47 L	-2.2wins	-0.05per pick	7cpaid	-96%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	0c	6,572$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.99	281	5%14 W · 267 L	-3.6wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	4,817$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.22	2,576	13.2%339 W · 2,237 L	+4.4wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	4,773$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.29	2,181	3.9%85 W · 2,096 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes	0c	4,620$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.18	187	3.7%7 W · 180 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	1c	4,488$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.62	899	10.2%92 W · 807 L	-3.9wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	0c	4,077$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.85	1,209	8.7%105 W · 1,104 L	+31.6wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	2c	3,648$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.48	712	16.7%119 W · 593 L	-13.0wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes	1c	2,882$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.46	411	23.1%95 W · 316 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc732…45b3backed Yes	2c	2,500$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.5	81	8.6%7 W · 74 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	+122.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a84…3788backed Yes	1c	2,472$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.3	68	23.5%16 W · 52 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	1c	2,234$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.52	426	10.6%45 W · 381 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf2f2…1762backed Yes	2c	1,978$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.93	88	12.5%11 W · 77 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-65.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	3c	1,564$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.61	249	24.9%62 W · 187 L	-13.6wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-45.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1dc0…a4d2backed Yes	1c	1,218$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.06	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e1a…7690backed Yes	1c	1,138$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.65	124	21.8%27 W · 97 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xae77…2971backed Yes	2c	1,121$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb353…bd7fbacked Yes	1c	959.24$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.27	119	4.2%5 W · 114 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-39.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1299…f6b1backed Yes	2c	827.9$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.02	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-76.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x482f…53f7backed Yes	2c	823.11$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	81	2.5%2 W · 79 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	3cpaid	-60.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xd421…191cbacked Yes	1c	733.02$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	25	4%1 W · 24 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	-88.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event