Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74f2ddd3a534164be805d241c14a2b7e6f036dd55314b9a11b5e0e775baa014c

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 9, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $161,098
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $81,631

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $161,098 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xa639…7135backed Yes	1c	24,497$234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234.18	48	2.1%1 W · 47 L	-2.2wins	-0.05per pick	7cpaid	-96%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb353…bd7fbacked Yes	3c	12,868$356 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$356.15	119	4.2%5 W · 114 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-39.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	0c	8,613$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.77	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	5,685$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.37	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes	2c	4,446$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.71	334	22.2%74 W · 260 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	7c	4,402$289 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$289.37	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	3,101$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.1	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	2,599$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.25	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	2c	2,229$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.61	245	24.9%61 W · 184 L	-13.8wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-45%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc732…45b3backed Yes	4c	2,210$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.42	81	8.6%7 W · 74 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	+122.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0504…3799backed Yes	1c	2,105$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.05	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	1,900$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.4	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	4c	1,830$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.67	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd421…191cbacked Yes	1c	1,821$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	25	4%1 W · 24 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	-88.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2f2…1762backed Yes	1c	1,212$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.12	88	12.5%11 W · 77 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-65.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	2c	1,109$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.21	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	4c	754.18$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.28	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	5c	601.3$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	3c	600$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.8	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7766…b7f6backed Yes	6c	554.03$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.9	321	10%32 W · 289 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	2c	513.21$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.84	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x06de…cf4cbacked Yes	8c	498.8$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.33	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes	8c	379.99$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.4	277	7.9%22 W · 255 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9916…8088backed Yes	10c	353.06$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.31	33	24.2%8 W · 25 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	28cpaid	-32.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes	8c	341.73$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.79	186	8.6%16 W · 170 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x68ec…7c22backed Yes	7c	153$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.46	62	16.1%10 W · 52 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-24%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x10ea…02edbacked Yes	9c	127.89$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	135	11.9%16 W · 119 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	+37.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4213…67f5backed Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6933…0f16backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	475	10.5%50 W · 425 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event